Brexit: The DUP's bruising battle for control

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Sammy Wilson
Image caption,

Sammy Wilson is now shouting about empty supermarket shelves

As back bench interventions go, it was one to remember.

Sammy Wilson shouting "go to the chippy" as the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford warned about empty supermarket shelves with the threat of a no-deal Brexit

Two years on, and the same DUP MP is now the one shouting about empty supermarket shelves and pleading for government intervention.

How times have changed.

Back then the DUP was at the heart of government, providing a life line for the Tories under Theresa May.

Today, it is back on the fringes complaining about being "screwed over" by former allies on the Conservative benches.

Politics can be a dirty businesses and Brexit has been a bruising battle for the DUP.

But how many of its wounds were self-inflicted?

And in its desire to be free from one union has the party jeopardised the union it cherishes most?

From day one, it has been a story about control.

"Take back control" was the battle cry, which secured victory for the DUP and fellow leave supporters in the 2016 Brexit referendum

After the snap General Election in 2017, the party held the balance of power and exercised control over Theresa May's government.

When she resigned in 2019 the party flexed more of that control over Boris Johnson.

But the critical moment came in October that year when it initially backed Boris Johnson's new offer to the EU.

The party assumed, on the basis of assurances from the Prime Minister, that it would retain control over any regulatory changes separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

It was wrong.

Image source, PA Media
Image caption,

This week, supermarkets called for action on NI food supplies

From that moment, the party lost any control or influence it may have had over the Brexit outcome.

The DUP opened the door to a regulatory border down the Irish Sea and though it slammed that same door shut weeks later, when it came to a vote Boris Johnson had bagged the concession.

As one former Theresa May adviser put it, it gave Boris Johnson the "leeway" with Brussels which his boss didn't have.

The DUP banked on having control over the new protocol arrangements with the option of exercising a veto at Stormont, but when that was stripped away, the party walked away from any notion of regulatory divergence with Great Britain.

Could the DUP have taken a different path, leading to a different outcome?

Supporting Theresa May's softer Brexit plan, with the whole of the UK remaining closely linked to the EU single market, might have avoided an Irish Sea border.

The DUP insists her plan would have resulted in a border down the Irish Sea without any consent mechanism for Stormont.

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

An Irish Sea border has been a contentious issue

The party also believes, even with its backing, it would have struggled to get through parliament - those close to Theresa May disagree.

But it was also clear that hard-line Brexiteers saw Boris Johnson as their last hope to get the deal done and quickly deserted the DUP when it needed them most.

When Boris Johnson returned with an 80-seat majority after the General Election the Brexit die was cast.

The DUP is now in damage limitation mode trying to mitigate against the political fall-out of an Irish Sea border while standing ready to seize upon any economic long-term "gateway opportunities".

If they come along they might help to cement the union.

The party may also seek to use the Northern Ireland protocol to bolster unionist numbers at Stormont in next year's assembly election.

Remember the fate of the new Irish Sea border hinges on a majority vote in the chamber in four years.

If the DUP decides to go down that path - there is an oven ready slogan the party could use - "Take back control"