NI election 2022: SDLP hoping history repeats itself

Colum Eastwood says he is confident the SDLP can increase its seats in the assembly

At a packed room at the Cultúrlann McAdam ÓFiaich centre on the Falls Road in west Belfast, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood is making a speech.

He is addressing activists and candidates as he launches the nationalist party's assembly election campaign.

The Foyle MP has a prepared text but occasionally he ad libs as he talks about his party's chances at next month's poll.

Halfway through his speech, a man comes out of a lift at the back of the room and is guided slowly to a seat.

He takes his place and quietly listens. Mr Eastwood spots him and draws the crowd's attention to the newly-arrived guest.

He declares: "I see Joe Hendron has joined us at the back."

Heads turn at the front to look and within seconds the room is filled with applause.

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Joe Hendron is part of the SDLP's folklore and, as he acknowledges his party leader, he gets a standing ovation.

Now in his 90th year, the party veteran has a special place in the hearts of members.

Back in 1992 he sensationally defeated the Sinn Féin president at the time, Gerry Adams, and took the Westminster seat of Belfast West.

At election time nothing galvanises the party faithful like a reminder of a past victory.

• SDLP launches election manifesto

Mr Eastwood says there are parallels with Mr Hendron's victory in 1992 and the assembly fight in 2022.

He says the SDLP message is straightforward - if you are unhappy with your political leaders, vote them out.

Outside on the Falls Road, as he stands in front of a party billboard, he expands on his point: "I see the other parties are talking about real change.

"Well, we can't have real change if we have the same two parties running the place. It is about time we had real change in people's pockets and on the ground.

"That people did not have to worry about feeding their children or heating their homes."

The SDLP is running 22 candidates in the election

Like every other political leader, Mr Eastwood desperately wants to expand his assembly team and see his party vote increase.

At the last assembly election under his stewardship, 12 SDLP members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) were elected, but the Foyle politician knows standing still is not an option.

He needs to see his party grow and knows he will be judged on what the ballot box reveals.

Some of the SDLP's target seats are held by Sinn Féin and the DUP.

The SDLP thinks it can gain in Belfast West - where it was represented continuously from 1998 until losing its seat at the 2017 election.

It also has high hopes in places such as Strangford - where a nationalist party has never held a seat - and Fermanagh and South Tyrone, while it hopes to increase its tally in Foyle from two seats to three.

However, in places like Lagan Valley and Upper Bann it expects the seats it holds to be under pressure.

So can Mr Eastwood really change hearts and minds?

Suzanne Breen, the Belfast Telegraph's political editor, said the debate over who should be the next first minister may not help the SDLP.

She explained that whilst some voters see Mr Eastwood's party as an alternative to Sinn Féin, others think that Michelle O'Neill becoming first minister has to be the priority.

Ms O'Neill would be in line for the first minister's post if Sinn Féin becomes the largest party in the assembly - it is currently the second largest.

The SDLP is bidding for a third seat in the constituency of Foyle, which includes the city of Londonderry

Ms Breen explained: "Colum Eastwood has been very critical of Sinn Féin's record in government.

"He is saying they are not an anti-establishment party, that they have been at the heart of power for 15 years.

"It is really (a question of) if nationalist voters are going to see it that way or if they are going to see an opportunity to have the first ever nationalist first minister of Northern Ireland, and that is a very powerful goal for a lot of people."

So does the prospect of a Sinn Féin first minister mean the SDLP might be overlooked by some voters?

Mr Eastwood candidly expects that Sinn Féin will be the largest party in the election.

"I think, by the way, it is probably certain now that Sinn Féin will end up with the first minister's position but we can still have the same number of Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) ministers, so why don't we do something about that?" he told BBC News NI.

"Take more of the DUP ministers out of that executive and put more SDLP people in and have a real change."

David McCann, the deputy editor of the Slugger O'Toole website, said the SDLP faces a tight fight in a number of seats but in the past has defied the odds.

"If things go badly for them in the campaign you could see them down to about 10 seats," the political commentator said.

"But if they catch a bit of wind, and they have done this before in campaigns, they could potentially hold their 12 and come back with maybe 13 or 14 seats."

However, Mr McCann does not think the SDLP will make huge gains.

"They are not looking for big jumps, we are not talking about them in the same context in which we are talking about the Alliance Party making an advance forward," he said.

'A big gap'

Suzanne Breen agrees and believes the SDLP will find gains hard to come by.

"I think at the moment a good election for the SDLP is if it simply holds the same number of seats that it has.

"I can't really see it going to make much ground on Sinn Féin.

"I think there is going to be a big gap there both in terms of votes and in terms of MLAs returned."

The SDLP leader rejects such analysis.

He wants this election to be about living standards and whether parties are truly committed to power sharing.

So how many assembly members does Mr Eastwood think he will come back with?

He is remaining tight lipped.

"I don't do predictions. I have been doing this too many times," he said.

Pressed on what target figure he has in his head, he replied: "Well that is where I am going to keep it.

"I am absolutely convinced though that the SDLP will win more seats than we went in for."

Mr Eastwood knows his history. He knows electoral success sometimes comes down to fine margins.

Three decades ago, Joe Hendron proved that point and upset the odds.

Next month, the SDLP hopes it can repeat that trick.

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