NI economy: September shows signs of worsening job market

The number of people on company payrolls in Northern Ireland has fallen slightly marking the first decrease in more than a year, official figures show.

The number of employees in September was 780,800, which is 0.1% lower than August.

This is still 2.6% higher than September 2021.

Other figures from HMRC suggest pay increases are now lagging well behind the rate of inflation.

The data shows the typical Northern Ireland employee had a monthly pay of £1,944 in September 2022, an increase of £102 or 5.5% over the year.

That compares to a UK inflation rate of 9.9%.

When prices are rising much faster than wages, it means that living standards are declining.

Some of the latest data suggests the jobs market softened last month.

'Challenging outlook'

The monthly unemployment claimant count increased for the first time since February 2021, showing a 1.3% increase in September.

Another measure, the Labour Force Survey, shows the unemployment rate rising very slightly in the quarter from June to August, up 0.4% to 3%.

• UK unemployment at lowest rate in nearly 50 years

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) found that although the majority of indicators continue to report improvements over the year, some indicators show a worsening position over the short-term.

It added that 190 redundancies were proposed in September, which came after no or low redundancies over the summer months.

It said the latest HMRC payroll data showed that payrolled employee numbers are now 3.8% higher than in March 2020 pre-Covid and earnings are now 11.4% above pre-Covid level.

However, this is the lowest increase of all 12 UK regions.

Nisra said the employment rate, the percentage of working-age adults in a job, is still 2.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level.

In response to the figures, Ulster Bank's chief economist Richard Ramsey said the statistics showed the "first signs that the deterioration in business conditions and the cost-of-living crisis are starting to filter through to the labour market".

"Given the increasingly challenging outlook further weakness in the labour market is expected in the months ahead," he added.