Stormont Election: Will the NI Secretary U-turn over Christmas poll?

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will meet the four executive parties on Tuesday

The Northern Ireland secretary insists he hasn't blinked first in his stand-off with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), but it feels like he has.

Chris Heaton-Harris vowed to call an assembly election as soon as the midnight deadline passed last week.

He didn't and is now playing for more time leaving 6,000 electoral staff in limbo still unsure if they will be running an election 10 days before Christmas.

The secretary of state has another week to play with if he wants to send voters to the polls on 15 December.

Legally he is still obliged to do so, but politically he seems to be moving in another direction.

• Q&A: Is Northern Ireland going back to the polls?

• Who is NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris?

• A simple guide to the Northern Ireland Protocol

Over the weekend he attempted to set a new path which might or might not lead to a snap election.

On Tuesday, he will discuss the "next steps" with the four executive parties.

They include keeping public services running and "protecting public finances" in the Stormont power vacuum.

He has even reheated the old threat of cutting MLAs salaries if the crisis is not resolved.

But there will be no MLAs officially in post if he sticks to his "intention" to call an election.

By threatening to pull other levers it raises questions about his commitment to pull the lever on another poll.

How likely is an election?

Is he preparing the ground for a U-turn?

I got a flat "no" when I posed that question last week.

But if he has to backtrack, it will be hugely damaging to his creditability just a week after being reappointed to the post.

Though events elsewhere might cushion any climb down.

Power-sharing at Stormont collapsed in February after the DUP withdrew from the Executive in protest over the Northern Ireland Protocol

Progress in the UK and EU protocol negotiations might make it easier to lift the threat of an election to allow that process to run its course.

Though what are the chances of progress in those talks before next week's latest deadline?

Might the secretary of state just allow the threat of an election to linger for months?

After all, he ultimately has a 12-week window.

Better keeping it as an live option than removing it and leaving Chris Heaton-Harris with very few other cards to play.

Though he will now be kept busy on other fronts.

What is in the NI secretary's in-tray?

With no ministers in place, the secretary of state is now Stormont's sole political gatekeeper.

He will have big calls to make on a budget which the Executive failed to agree before it broke up.

• Sinn Féin accuses DUP of creating 'political limbo'

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He will also face pressure over the cost-of-living support funds which have yet to reach households in Northern Ireland.

So the secretary of state will have enough in his in-tray to deflect from any talk of elections.

But he will at some point have to tell those 6,000 electoral staff on standby to stand down or stand ready for a pre-Christmas vote and count.