Loyalists: Police say rising tensions remain under close watch

Loyalists have been angered by the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland

The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) does not believe loyalist paramilitary groups, based on a current assessment, will break their 1994 ceasefires.

But it does acknowledge tension within loyalist communities has risen lately.

Much of this is down to talk, before being corrected, of joint London-Dublin rule being imposed.

"As a collective, they are not moving to a more 'military' footing," a senior security source said.

The assessment involved the input of the security service, MI5.

This is not a new development as far as evaluating whether loyalist groups, principally the UVF and the UDA, pose any national security threat.

But the fact this is being briefed out is a warning they are being watched very closely.

MI5 operations in Northern Ireland have historically been much more focused on dissident republican groups.

The language and the sentiment of a recent letter from the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC) to Unionist leaders, which spoke of "dire consequences", was not new.

Irish ministers were first told they were not welcome in Northern Ireland in June 2021 and months prior to that, the UK Government was informed the basis of the ceasefires had been undermined by the Irish Sea border.

Latest letter

Among LCC members are representatives of the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commando - proscribed organisations, significant elements of which remain deeply involved in criminality, such as drug dealing and extortion, and who continue to recruit.

The LCC was formed in 2015 to address social issues in loyalist communities and help reduce paramilitary activity.

During the course of the last two years, the LCC, a legal organisation, has met Northern Ireland Office officials, Lord Frost, when he was Brexit minister, and the DUP.

So what was behind the latest letter?

"A lot of it was sabre-rattling," said one person aware of loyalist thinking.

Loyalist rioting broke out in Belfast in 2021.

They also suggested reports of an aborted attack in the Republic of Ireland the week before last were "a bit of an exaggeration".

Alluding to this, PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne told Thursday's Policing Board meeting that while the PSNI could not have full knowledge of everything, there was a gap between what was stated and what loyalists had the "capability and capacity" to do.

For context, there has not been any significant street disorder in Northern Ireland since April 2021 and this was followed by two bus hijackings that November, both blamed on the UVF.

The last incident of note was the elaborate bomb hoax, again said to involve the UVF, targeting a visit to north Belfast by the Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney in March.

There is a belief in security circles that dozens of peaceful anti-Protocol demonstrations which took place up until the summer provided a kind of release valve for simmering anger and frustration.

A source said: "They are happy the DUP has given no ground on the protocol or a return to Stormont.

"At the minute it is watch and react."

There are also suggestions that UVF and UDA leadership figures from the troubles era have tried to keep a brake on things, as was referenced in the last year's report by the International Reporting Commission.

But this could become harder to manage.

Beneath the headline of ceasefires holding, there is a current concern, one which may develop, or ease, depending on how the politics of the protocol ultimately plays out.

It is based on loyalism not being a cohesive body.

'Increased tension'

The PSNI remains alive to the possibility that individuals could act and of a possible breakaway element which older leadership figures could not push back against.

"Tension has increased in the last couple of weeks. There's definitely been a turning up of the dial," a senior officer said.

"Our antenna is up and we are pro-actively monitoring things."

At the Policing Board meeting, Simon Byrne stressed that he was not "a soothsayer" and the security picture he outlined is rooted firmly in the present.

He called for rhetoric to be calmed down - and provided a security assessment which appeared to match.