Ulster Bank survey: NI private sector 'in weakened state'

Inflationary pressures seem to be easing, according to the bank's chief economist

Northern Ireland's private sector output declined for a seventh consecutive month in November, an Ulster Bank survey suggests.

It adds to evidence that the local economy may have entered a recession.

However, the survey also suggests that inflation may be at or near its peak.

The bank's monthly survey of about 200 firms is considered to be a reliable indicator of the private sector economy.

Its chief economist, Richard Ramsey, said the local private sector is coming to the end of 2022 "in a weakened state, with 2023 likely to be a very challenging year".

• NI business confidence lowest since summer 2020

• NI economy continues to contract says Ulster Bank

He added that the "one silver lining" is that inflationary pressures seem to be easing, with input costs and output price inflation rising at their lowest rates in 21 months.

"With energy prices falling back, easing inflation, alongside less supply chain disruption, will be amongst the few positives during 2023," he said.

The main UK rate of inflation, the Consumer Prices Index, is currently 11.1%. An updated measurement will be published on Wednesday.

On Thursday the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates from their current 3%.