Northern Ireland job market strong despite economy worries

The level of redundancies in Northern Ireland remains very low

Northern Ireland's job market has remained relatively strong despite growing economic worries, the latest official data suggests.

The quarterly employment rate, which measures the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work, increased by 1.7 percentage points to 71.3%.

The level of redundancies is still very low with just 50 confirmed in November.

The main concern in the latest figures is a gradual increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits.

The claimant count increased for the third month in a row in November and now stands at 36,200.

However, as a proportion of the workforce the number of people claiming unemployment benefits was unchanged at 3.8%.

• NI job market holding up despite economy concerns

• Workforce levels grow but wages lag inflation

Another job market indicator, the quarterly employment survey (QES) suggests that private sector jobs in Northern Ireland reached an all-time high in September.

The QES measurement is a survey of about 6,000 companies, covering all employers with 25 or more employees and all public sector employers.

Quarterly increases in employee jobs were seen within the services (+4,330 jobs), construction (+140 jobs) and other industry (+210 jobs) sectors.

The manufacturing sector reported a decrease of 980 jobs over the quarter.

Living standards decline

Earnings data from HMRC also suggests pay rises are still running well below the rate of inflation.

The data suggests a typical employee in NI had monthly pay of £1,999 in November, which is up by £140 or 7.5% over the year.

However, with the main UK rate of inflation currently above 11% that will mean people are experiencing a decline in their real standard of living.

Meanwhile, Danske Bank has revised down its forecast for the Northern Ireland economy next year.

The bank expects the local economy to contract by around 1% compared to its previous estimate of a 0.5% fall in output.

Danske Bank Chief Economist, Conor Lambe, said: "The UK economy contracted in the third quarter of 2022 and we think that economic activity in Northern Ireland is also likely to have declined.

"Output is then projected to fall further in the final quarter of the year and through most of next year with both economies experiencing a period of recession as a number of factors adversely impact activity levels."

Mr Lambe said he expected the rate of inflation to fall gradually during 2023 but that it would continue to weigh down on household purchasing power.

The forecast expect the retail sector to bear the brunt of the downturn with output estimated to fall by 4.5%.

By contrast it expects the IT and professional services sectors to grow slightly.