NI Protocol: DUP leader facing his own 'big moment'

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has a tough call to make on whether to support or reject a deal on the protocol

Negotiations on the Northern Ireland Protocol have been painful and protracted but at last we have reached the moment of truth.

To quote Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the "big moment" has arrived and the next decision by London and Brussels will have profound consequences.

He warned it could "consign Northern Ireland to more division" or clear a path "towards healing and the restoration" of the political institutions at Stormont.

It is also a big moment for the DUP leader.

His next decision could have equally profound consequences for the next generation.

It could set us on a path to reset power-sharing at Stormont or leave Northern Ireland drifting into the political wilderness with no route back to devolution.

PM's secret visit

If the past 48 hours have been crucial in preparing the ground for a breakthrough, the next 48 hours will be critical in sealing it.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's late-night dash to Northern Ireland on Thursday injected some new momentum.

It was a visit cloaked in secrecy.

There was no advance warning to the media, something that is usually given ahead of prime ministerial visits.

Instead the visit was rumbled by an eagle-eyed journalist who was using the leisure facilities in the Culloden Hotel.

Rishi Sunak made a quick exit from the Culloden early on Friday afternoon

The sudden heavy police presence was the first clue.

The appearance of Northern Ireland Office staff in the lobby then gave the game away.

The prime minister was on his way.

The Culloden in Cultra, County Down, has become the venue of choice for such visits due to its close proximity to Belfast City Airport.

Within half an hour of the BBC reporting the surprise visit, Downing Street confirmed it.

But the statement failed to mention the DUP welcoming party.

It arrived later, led by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, for a late-night negotiation with the prime minister and his officials.

It lasted until after 02:00 GMT on Friday.

Handshakes and selfies

Feeling the need to provide some political cover and anticipating a political backlash, meetings were hastily organised with the other party leaders.

They were organised so quickly that emails were sent to the wrong addresses.

So as not to get in the way of the real negotiation the other party leaders were each allocated 15-minute slots with the prime minister.

Just enough time for a handshake, a selfie and a quick positive progress report.

Many unionists oppose the protocol but a majority of Stormont politicians support it in some form

Then it was back to business and more discussions with the DUP.

The talks mostly involved Downing Street officials shuttling back and forth, exchanging views and then some more face-to-face time with Rishi Sunak.

While the other party leaders were not shown any details of the UK-EU technical agreement, which has been sitting on the prime minister's desk for a fortnight, it is clear that some details were shared with Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and his team.

Although the DUP leader insisted afterwards that he wasn't shown the text of a "final deal", he was shown enough text of a deal in progress to sustain hours of negotiation.

That allowed him to tell reporters afterwards that progress had been made on "important issues".

He was also able to point to legislation coming in both London and Brussels that may be useful in allowing the DUP to argue that the protocol as it previously existed had been ditched.

Legislation will also allow the Tory Brexiteer MPs in the European Research Group to flex their muscles and make life uncomfortable for the prime minster.

Furthermore if a deal is announced next week the DUP will be able to reserve judgement until it studies the text and small print of any planned legislation.

Change in tone

The very fact the DUP leader read from a prepared statement during his post-meeting press conference was telling.

That is not the Sir Jeffrey Donaldson way.

It was carefully crafted to get the right message and the right detail out.

Not just to London and Brussels after a night of negotiation but also to the DUP base who, like the press pack, will have noted a change in tone from the party leader.

This was a more upbeat assessment, talking about progress being made while also laying down a challenge to Brussels to move even further.

It was the tightest of tightropes for the DUP leader.

Will Ursula von der Leyen and the EU be open to further compromise?

The fact that the prime minister slipped away through a back door without facing the press was also telling.

Instead he opted for the safer option of a tightly-managed interview in London without any challenge or scrutiny of his negotiation with the DUP.

His take on the DUP talks no doubt featured in his meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the fringes of a security summit in Munich on Saturday.

Armed with the DUP's bottom line, he may have attempted to squeeze more concessions from the EU with the prize of getting Stormont back.

But sources in Brussels suggest there will be no return to the negotiating table.

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Sir Jeffrey Donaldson is also expected to spend the weekend briefing his party on the Culloden talks.

Both London and Brussels will hope the DUP can make their seven tests fit the deal ahead of its potential announcement early next week.

But now may not be the time for the DUP to compromise, just months away from the council elections.

Outright rejection of any deal will also carry risks for Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the future of devolution in Northern Ireland.

He will have a big call to make when his big moment arrives.