DUP boycott: Will champagne corks pop for end of stalemate?

In the Commons this week Chris Heaton-Harris offered a political tease about his talks with the DUP

Chris Heaton-Harris was in a mood to celebrate this week as MPs returned from their summer break.

He cracked open a bottle of champagne on the Westminster terrace and raised a glass with colleagues.

We are told he was toasting his first year in office as secretary of state for Northern Ireland.

It was something he was quick to tell MPs during Northern Ireland Questions in the Commons chamber.

He even joked that Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson might mark his personal milestone by ending his party's Stormont boycott.

But it was what Chris Heaton-Harris said next which might explain his chipper mood.

He told the Commons that negotiations with the DUP about restoring devolution have moved forward "substantially".

When pressed by his new opposite number Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn as to why we haven't seen any progress, Chris Heaton Harris replied: "Just because you can't see it doesn't mean it isn't happening."

The whispers in Westminster

It was a political tease which raised eyebrows on the Northern Ireland benches.

But as one Northern Ireland MP later said: "Seeing is believing - we have been here before."

An understandable reaction after a 19-month stalemate with few outward signs that it is coming to an end.

As his party conference nears next month, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson will have a big decision to make on whether to stick to his boycott or head back to Stormont

Though the whispers around Westminster this week suggest a deal with the DUP could be closer than many people think.

One government source said the "negotiations are in a good place" but also warned: "We are not there yet and we know how quickly progress can unravel."

A senior DUP source also acknowledged the "process is moving in the right direction" but added there was still "some way to run".

A Northern Ireland businessman who attended a Westminister reception this week claimed to have been told by a senior DUP politician that "something could happen in the next fortnight".

That prospect was played down by both sides in the talks.

But they did both agree that if there is no breakthrough by November there will be no return to Stormont this side of next year's Westminster election.

Delivering the goods

So the window is short and we can expect some movement in the coming weeks.

The government is poised to publish secondary legislation to cement Northern Ireland's place within the internal UK market.

It was previously promised in the New Decade New Approach Deal but the DUP say never fully delivered.

It may only build on what was laid out in the Internal Market Act dealing with goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.

The DUP wants more than a few tweaks to the post-Brexit trade deal for Northern Ireland that it refuses to accept

While important because of concerns about divergence in the future, it will not satisfy those who want the focus on goods moving in the opposite direction.

But the government has made it clear that it cannot and will not renegotiate the Windsor Framework.

Though senior sources in the DUP still argue changes to the operation of the "green lane" system are still possible.

It will cater for goods moving from Great Britain and staying in Northern Ireland but paperwork will be required and it will be subject to random checks.

"This is where most people will come in contact with the new systems and it needs to be invisible with no checks," said a DUP source.

"There is no reason why spot checks can't take place on businesses premises and not at the ports.

"What is being planned is a red lane and red lane-lite which we can't live with."

Is it now or never?

But there will come a moment soon when the negotiations end and it will be decision time for the DUP.

That could happen ahead of the party's conference in mid October.

All eyes could be on the leader to signal in his speech if the party is up for a return to Stormont or if its demands are still not met.

Much has been made of the possible dissenting voices within the DUP officers team who may be harder to convince.

The shutdown at Stormont is pushing closer to the two-year mark

But we are told that the leader is confident of bringing the party with him as he can't afford not to.

Polls also suggest Sir Jeffrey Donaldson is under no grassroots pressure to return to Stormont until the party's demands are met.

But as one senior party source said: "At some point we need to be able to show our protest has delivered."

Holding out for a Labour government is not an option he relishes.

The next two months will be critical for the future of power-sharing at Stormont.

It may be in the UK government's interest to tease that a deal is close but talking up talks is a risky strategy.

If he does manage to oversee a return of Stormont Chris Heaton-Harris might be around to celebrate two years in the job.

If, that is, we don't have an election before then.