Stormont talks: Same decade, same approach - different outcome?

Stormont talks and deals may be turning into something of a Northern Ireland Christmas tradition

It is beginning to look a lot like Christmas - Christmas 2019.

Back then, a £2bn financial package was offered to tempt the political parties back to Stormont, in a deal that came to be known as New Decade New Approach.

Back then, there was a promise to transform public services and boost infrastructure, while the talks also played out against a backdrop of striking public sector workers.

And, back then, it worked.

• Tackling Northern Ireland's public spending woes

• Parties hold further talks on £2.5bn funding

• Protesters tell politicians to 'get back to work'

The political parties returned to Stormont early in the new year ending a three-year deadlock - though they all later claimed to have been bounced back in by the then Secretary of State Julian Smith.

The very same Julian Smith is involved in the background this time and cheerleading from social media.

But there is no guarantee the New Decade New Approach template will work this Christmas.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson is under pressure to end his Stormont boycott

Frustrated by DUP dithering, the government has gone public with its £2.5bn financial package.

It is aimed at applying even more pressure on Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to end his Stormont boycott.

The prospect of months of disruption to schools, health services and transport by striking public service workers will present a massive challenge for the DUP.

But equally it will ramp up pressure on the man waving the £2.5bn cheque - Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris.

Protestors gathered outside Hillsborough Castle on Monday

He now accepts the need to increase public sector pay in line with the rest of the UK and has the money to make it happen.

Resisting pressure from the striking workers will also be a challenge for him.

On Tuesday, the parties will pore over the fine details of the financial package.

They have each been given a room in Hillsborough Castle to meet with officials from the Cabinet Office and Treasury.

'Take it or leave it'

Government sources insist this is a "take it or leave it offer" and have ruled out any move by the secretary of state to spend the cash on public sector pay if Stormont fails to return.

There is no set deadline, according to the government, despite pressure from Sinn Féin to make Wednesday the cut-off point.

That raises the potential of yet another drifting talks process sitting alongside the prolonged protocol talks.

It also removes any likelihood of the DUP returning to Stormont this year.

The party says it wants to spend time assessing the implications of the financial package.

After dangling the £2.5bn carrot Chris Heaton-Harris will be pressed tomorrow for a plan B if it fails to move the DUP

The optimism that has been slowly building around a possible pre-Christmas Stormont return drained away on Monday.

Now he has dangled the £2.5bn carrot, Chris Heaton-Harris will be pressed tomorrow for a plan B if it fails to move the DUP.

His task is not helped by his Tory colleagues at Westminster who have turned on their leader Rishi Sunak over his Rwanda asylum plan.

Why would the DUP strike a deal with a prime minister whose grip on power is getting weaker by the day?

It is yet another reason to stretch out the overstretched talks in the hope of the process being surpassed by events elsewhere.

It is starting to feel like same decade, same approach but different outcome.