Northern Ireland's economy 'stuck in low growth'

A new forecast suggests the Northern Ireland economy with grow by 0.8% in 2024

The Northern Ireland economy will avoid recession in 2024 but will barely grow over the next two years, a new forecast has suggested.

The Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) has made a similar forecast for the UK as a whole.

It expects the economy to grow by 0.8% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025 before annual growth recovers to about 2%.

That recovery is based on the assumption that interest rates come down from current levels.

Gareth Hetherington, director of the UUEPC, said that focusing on whether the economy either avoids or falls into a recession "somewhat misses the point".

Gareth Hetherington said there is a lack of policy focus on tackling a prolonged period of low growth

"In practice the difference between either outcome will be a few tenths of a percentage point in growth," he said.

"The bigger problem is the prolonged period of low growth and the lack of policy focus to correct this.

"This issue is not restricted to Northern Ireland and explains why after more than a decade of downward pressure on government spending alongside an increasing tax burden, government debts and deficits remain a significant problem."

Unemployment to stay low

The forecast also suggested the local jobs market will remain resilient even as the impact of higher interest rates continues to filter through the economy.

It expects that unemployment will remain close to its record low level of just over 2%.

Over the longer term, the UUEPC expects that the number of professional services and IT jobs in Northern Ireland will continue to grow robustly.

These sectors have been central to the relatively strong performance of the Northern Ireland services sector over the last two years.