Stormont analysis: Stakes high for DUP leader ahead of crunch meeting

The stakes are high for DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson

It was the email Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) executive members had been waiting for and it arrived on Friday night.

The 130 members were promised a briefing by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson before any deal to return to Stormont was made public.

It appears the party leader is now fulfilling that pledge.

So far Sir Jeffrey has been focused on meeting his "seven tests" for a Stormont return.

But at the meeting of the party executive on Monday night will come test number eight, which could be be the most difficult of the lot.

In the email announcing the meeting, the party's chief executive apologised for the short notice.

He blamed "circumstances beyond our control" but then quoted the rule under which party officers have the power to call a meeting at short notice "waiving the normal notice period".

Maybe he was mindful the decision to arrange the gathering could be challenged by some worried about the outcome.

He then went on to say the party leader wished to "provide a detailed update on the current political situation", and added that members should make every effort to attend.

Then in bold, underlined writing he told members the meeting would be at "a secure venue" but they would have to wait until Monday to get details of the exact location.

Plea for secrecy

The secrecy indicates just how sensitive this gathering is on Monday, but also reassures those attending that the party is trying to protect members from the glare of the media.

Just to reinforce that point, in the next line members were asked not to "discuss the business with those outside the party or the press and media".

But that plea was quickly ignored by some.

Within minutes of the email dropping in members' inboxes, the message was screenshotted and posted on Twitter by loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson.

He has warned the DUP against striking a deal with the government and it is clear there are some on the party executive who share the same view - those Sir Jeffrey accused of "stirring" in his Commons speech during the week.

It is likely the details of the "secure venue" will also be leaked when they are shared with members on Monday.

That will present a headache for the party leadership who will be keen to avoid a repeat of a previous executive showdown at the Crowne Plaza in Belfast.

'Plotting a path'

Back then party divisions were laid bare in front of the media when some executive members walked out during a bruising leadership contest.

This time the stakes for the DUP are even higher as Sir Jeffrey made clear the future of the union could hinge on the party's decision on whether or not to return to Stormont.

Sir Jeffrey is clearly now plotting a path back to power-sharing but other plotters within the party are working to a different plan.

It seems that group does not include Edwin Poots, who hinted this week he was up for a return to Stormont

He told the BBC's Nolan Show "why we would have done what we have done for the past two years and go back with nothing?"

He also hit out at those who have accused the party of being "traitors", describing them as "idiots".

If Sir Jeffrey is to get the support of the party executive then the backing of his former leader is key.

But even before party executive members gather on Monday, party officers may have already taken the decision to accept the deal on the table and return to Stormont.

The officers have the mandate to make that decision regardless of the views of party executive members.

Edwin Poots hinted this week he is up for a return to the Stormont

Ideally Sir Jeffrey would like the full endorsement of the executive if a deal is on the table, and he may get it.

But will it come at a cost to party unity.

That depends on how loud those opposed to any deal shout.

If they go public with their opposition then that could be tricky for the leadership.

More likely they may hold back in the interest of not inflicting more internal injuries on a party still bruised by the last fall out.

But there is also every chance executive members will be surprised and pleased with what is on the table.

The party leadership has been bullish about the gains it has made in meeting those important "seven tests" Sir Jeffrey laid down as preconditions for a return to Stormont.

Don't rule out a much smoother path back to power sharing for the party leadership than many have predicted if a final deal is presented.

If he passes Stormont, could be back up and running before the second anniversary of its collapse next weekend.