Will the EU amendment be called?

With 78 signatures and counting, will the John Baron amendment to the Queen's Speech (alright, I know, amendment to the motion for a Loyal Address) be called by Mr Speaker?

The decision won't be made until the Wednesday morning meeting, when John Bercow and his inner cabinet of clerks and deputies go through the day's business, but on the normal criteria, it seems highly likely that the amendment will be called.

Does it have a lot of support? Yes. Is that support cross-party? Yes. Is it an amendment which adds some new dimension to the debate? Yes.

And lurking in the back of Mr Speaker's mind will be the point that the Commons would look pretty silly if it didn't discuss the issue now dominating the national agenda.

There are a couple of other points about the amendment. First of all it's tactically quite important that it should attract more support than the motion sent for debate by the Backbench Business Committee in October 2011 - 81 Tory votes against the whip - to show that support for a referendum is still growing on the backbenches. That total of 78 includes a number of Labour and DUP names.

Second, the threat that some backbencher might pick up David Cameron's promised draft bill on a referendum and try to enact it as a private member's bill becomes a lot more credible if there are 100 MPs implicitly signed up to support it. Remember a private member's bill needs 100 MPs as a shield against a filibuster, to support a closure motion and move it to an actual vote.

And if such a bill is put down (and we won't know until we see the outcome of the private members' bill ballot on Thursday) expect a master class on parliamentary manoeuvre to follow....