From purdah to assisted dying

Behind the headlines about David Cameron's first Commons defeat off the new Parliament, there was something a little odd about the handling of the contentious "Purdah" amendments to the European Union Referendum Bill; it was all very relaxed.

Tory MPs, used to intensive (parliamentary) whipping, and at the very least a due diligence phone call to double check their position, were surprised to be left alone. The Government didn't seem to be trying very hard.

On the rebel side, the whipping operation was not as formidable as it has been on some occasions - but a solid phalanx of old Maastrictistas and usual suspect rebels plus two rather predictable members of the 2015 intake, Tom Pursglove and Craig MacKinlay meant 37 MPs defied their party line. A respectable, but not earth-shaking showing. (I'm told one 2015-er who intended to rebel accidentally voted with the Government - bless….)

There are several reasons why the Government might have taken a relaxed attitude; first allowing the Eurosceptic wing of the party to have its way on the rules might make it harder for them to cry foul after the referendum. Second, under the astute leadership of their new Chief, Mark Harper, the whips may be playing a longer game. Sometimes there's a price to be paid for frogmarching MPs through the division lobbies. Anger festers, regrets curdle and a resolution crystallises against being strong-armed in future. It was certainly true that many who did as they were told in the first great rebellion of the Blair years, over single parent benefits, became more intractable afterwards. So maybe there's an element of waiting till the vote is really vital.

Next big pinch point..

This was a reminder of the fragility of the Government's majority. But it's not a reliable guide to future rebellions. The next big pinch point is likely to be a vote on military intervention in Syria - flagged up for October. The MPs likely to defy ministers on that issue may be a quite different bunch from those who rebelled on the Purdah issue …. And it's far from clear what the Opposition, which by then will be under new management, will do.

Assisted Dying bill

Meanwhile there's another, scrappier, whipping operation under way, for Friday's second reading debate on Rob Marris's Private Members Bill on Assisted Dying. This is a reincarnation of the Bill introduced in the Lords last year by the former Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer.

Because it's the first real "conscience issue" to come before the 2015 Commons, no-one's entirely sure what will happen. The SNP, I'm told, are unlikely to show up in great numbers, because (a) the Bill applies to England and Wales and (b) they've just had a bruising battle over the same issue in Holyrood. In past years there would have been a solid contingent of Scottish Catholic MPs in the No Lobby for a measure of this kind, so the SNP landslide changes the arithmetic, whether its MPs turn up, or not.

The two sides of the argument are working hard to ensure a decent turnout, and there seems to be increasing confidence that the hundred MPs needed to trigger the closure of the debate, and move the Bill to a vote, will be there.

Both want a vote, not least because if the Bill is frustrated by the normal device of talking it out, it will probably come back every year. Getting a definite vote will at least establish whether there is sufficient support in the new House to justify what would certainly be a legislative marathon. So the expectation is that a vote will be held - probably after 1pm this Friday.