Debate over Tories' future direction has begun

David Cameron told me earlier this year that he'd serve only two terms as prime minister. And even though his second term might still have several more years to run, the race to succeed him has already begun.

The Chancellor George Osborne is considered the front runner, the prime minister's favoured successor, with strong support among Tory MPs.

But today the Home Secretary Theresa May gave a speech so utterly opposed to immigration that it reminded many here that she too might be a contender, setting out an agenda well to the right of Mr Osborne.

And let us not forget the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, how could we? He too kept his hat in the ring with a strong, carefully constructed speech to the left of Mr Osborne, reminding his rival of the risks of cutting tax credits.

Elsewhere on the fringe, the likes of Education Secretary Nicky Morgan and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and others have been playing footsie with party members, acting coy while showing a little ankle, all of them trying to tell the party that there are alternatives to Mr Osborne.

Now on one level, this is a political parlour game that is four years premature. But on another level, it reflects a gradual transfer of power that is taking place within the Tory party from one leadership to the next.

And it also reflects a debate within the Tory Party over the direction it should take now. To the centre to occupy ground vacated by Labour? To the right to make the most of the party's majority in the House of Commons?

To leave the European Union or stay in the European Union? And these are choices that could affect us all.