The week ahead

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Parliament in autumn

National security and mega-important spending decisions dominate the coming week in Westminster, with the government's strategic defence review and the chancellor's comprehensive spending review due to be unveiled in the Commons, expect both to be heavily trailed in the Sunday papers and for subsequent detailed scrutiny on the committee corridor to expose some interesting nuances.

Here's my rundown of the week ahead:

Monday November 23rd

The Commons opens at 14:30 ( GMT) with defence questions and remains on that subject for some hours, as the prime minister announces the findings of the 2015 national security strategy and the strategic defence review (he also handled the announcement of the 2010 review). This is a delicate issue across the chamber. There are plenty of Conservatives who are deeply uneasy about the state of the armed forces, even as they hoot at Labour's unilateralist leadership. A key concern is meeting the NAT0 target of 2 per cent of GDP for defence expenditure, but expect some rigorous scrutiny of what is counted towards that total; pensions? Some international aid spending?

Meanwhile Labour has some stark divisions of its own, with pro-nuclear MP John Woodcock chairing a backbench policy group, could this be an early example of different lines coming from the chair of the backbench policy group and from the official party spokesperson, Maria Eagle.

In addition, the defence select committee is due to publish a report previewing the review on Saturday 21st, expect committee chair Julian Lewis and his members to "mark the card" of the SDSR against their recommendations.

Then the government will seek to ram through all stages of the Northern Ireland Welfare Reform Bill, a product of the latest all-party deal to keep devolved administration going, in a single gulp. The bill has government and Labour support and the support of the biggest Northern Ireland party, the DUP, but the UUP and SDLP have reservations.

In the Lords business in the chamber opens at 14.30 ( GMT) with the arrival of two more MPs-turned Peers, in this case the Liberal Democrat veteran Lord (Alan) Beith and the Conservative former minister Lord (David "Two Brains") Willetts.

Question time will be followed by a repeat of the defence review statement and watch out for the thoughts of the legion of heavyweight defence and security experts, ex-ministers, generals, admirals, spies and diplomats, on the red benches.

Then legislating resumes with more detailed report-stage scrutiny of the European Union Referendum Bill. There are several amendments from peers on both sides of the argument calling for reports on various aspects of the decision on EU membership; the former senior diplomat, Lord Hannay, with cross-party support, calls for a report on what "Brexit" will look like (consequences of withdrawal), and similarly, Lord Kerr calls for a report on alternatives to EU membership, in the event of withdrawal.

The Crossbencher Lord Green of Deddington calls for a report on the implications of remaining within the EU, for net migration and on the continuation of EU rules on free movement. The Conservative Lord Forsyth wants a requirement to publish a report on the outcome of negotiations and any resulting changes in the relationship between Britain and the EU. At the moment the expectation is that none of these amendments will be pushed to a vote.

Finally the Liberal Democrat Lord Tyler aims a barb at the government in the form of a regret motion on the draft Northern Ireland (Elections) (Amendment) (No. 2) Order 2015. His point is that the order postpones changes to electoral registration in Northern Ireland, while the government is pressing ahead with similar changes elsewhere; he accuses ministers of seeking party advantage outside Northern Ireland.

Tuesday November 24th

The Commons meets at 11.30 ( GMT) for Foreign Office questions.

The main debates are on SNP motions on trident and the closure of HMRC offices, the first of those is clearly intended to put Labour in an awkward position

In Westminster Hall (9.30 - 11:00 GMT) the Conservative Chris Heaton-Harris leads a debate on world prematurity day, 15 million babies are born prematurely each year and around a million do not survive.

In the afternoon the subject is funding for the community and voluntary sector (14.30 - 16:00 GMT) in a debate led by Labour's Naz Shah.

In the Lords, from 14.30(GMT) the day's new peers are a brace of Labour former Welsh secretaries, Lord Murphy of Torfaen and Lord Hain

The key debate is the second reading of the Scotland Bill, the key issues are powers to set some taxes, including rates of income tax, as well as the devolution of some elements of the welfare system, and of abortion policy. A major point of interest will be how the government responds to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee's call for the detailed scrutiny of the bill to be postponed until the government has announced the financial side of devolution, the fiscal framework. If they don't satisfy the committee members they will put down a formal motion to postpone the committee Stage... but with Labour broadly satisfied with the bill and keen to speed it onto the statute book, such a motion may well not attract enough support.

Then the fast-tracked Northern Ireland Bill, fresh from the Commons will be put through all its stages of debate.

Wednesday November 25th

It's another very big day in the Commons (from 11.30 GMT) where MPs kick off with Northern Ireland questions, followed, at noon by prime minister's question time.

But then comes the announcement of the autumn statement and comprehensive spending review, the government's big package of spending cuts and priority shifts. The absolutely central issue here is how the chancellor responds to the House of Lords defeat on tax credits and concern on his own backbenches about the issue. How big will the changes be, will there be additional funds for, for example, the NHS and the police, and where will any extra money be raised to pay for them?

In the Lords (15:00 GMT) the usual half hour of questions to ministers will be followed by a repeat of the autumn statement. There will be a full debate on it on December 3rd.

Then peers will move on to report stage consideration of the Enterprise Bill, there is talk of a possible government concession on the role of the small business commissioner heading off a possible defeat. Other issues include quality apprenticeships and business rates.

Image caption,

Busy day for George Osborne

Thursday November 26th

The Commons has a quieter day. It begins (09.30 GMT) with mini question times for the attorney general and Nicky Morgan in her role as minister for women and equalities. That's followed by the weekly Commons business statement from the leader of the House.

The main debate, chosen by the backbench business committee, is on the final report of the airports commission, another of those occasions likely to pit two of the London mayoral candidates Sadiq Khan and Zac Goldsmith, against one another in a Commons debate, although both oppose Heathrow expansion.

In the Lords (11:00 GMT) Liberal Democrat Baroness (Lynn) Featherstone and Conservative Lord (William) Hague of Richmond take their seats as peers.

The main debates are on subjects chosen by Crossbenchers: firstly on the protection of freedom of speech in universities, and second on building a healthy society in the UK. There is a short lunch-time debate, in between, on fostering community links in the government's counter-terrorism strategy.

Neither House sits on Friday.