Week ahead

Even in the scant three Commons sitting days we've had in 2016, the tension and more particularly the angst, detectable in the chamber has been striking.

It seems that despite the festive break, pre-referendum tension on the government side, and faction fatigue on the Labour side, are taking their toll.

There have been a number of, admittedly minor, outbreaks of finger jabbing and ranting as the red (or, on occasion blue) mists have descended. So far, nothing has got out of control, but the general twitchiness could produce something a bit unseemly.

Elsewhere - watch out for the Trade Union Bill in the Lords. Whether or not the Lib Dem Lord Tyler manages to pull off a procedural coup against it, this promises to be one of the most bitterly contested bills seen in the Lords since the 2010 Parliamentary Voting and Constituencies Bill, of blessed memory.

Expect issues to be forced to a vote at committee stage and repeated attempts to enlist crossbench peers to amend the bill, and maybe long bouts of parliamentary ping-pong as the end of the parliamentary year looms in April.

And watch out, too, for attempts by various campaigning backbenchers to push particular causes. The Lib Dem former health minister Norman Lamb was startled, in a good sort of way, by the positive reception for his Ten Minute Rule Bill to set up a commission on the future of health and social care.

This was an initiative he'd signalled even while still a coalition minister, and he will doubtless be looking for further parliamentary channels to push it further - a backbench debate perhaps?

And don't forget that next week also sees the prime minister's first outing before the Commons Liaison Committee, the super-committee of chairs of the various select committees - the subjects for discussion are Syria and climate change.

Here's my rundown of the week ahead.

Monday 11 January

The Commons meets at 2.30pm for Home Office questions - and any urgent questions or ministerial statements will normally be taken immediately afterwards, at 3.30pm.

Next up is the report stage and third reading of the Armed Forces Bill. Ulster Unionists Tom Elliott and Danny Kinahan are proposing a new clause imposing a duty on the defence secretary to ensure compensation due to former members of the Armed Forces who have contracted mesothelioma during the course of their service is paid swiftly.

The backbench business debate on local government funding for rural areas will bear watching - it's led by the Conservative Graham Stuart, who last year organised an impressive tonnage of petitions from individual MPs, mostly but not exclusively Conservative, complaining that their local councils were underfunded in comparison to the big cities, and calling for a bigger slice of the cake. Chancellor George Osborne is sympathetic, so there will be enormous interest in the ministerial reply.

The Commons day ends with an adjournment debate on feminism in the school curriculum - led by Labour MP Rupa Huq.

In the Lords (2.30pm) the day's main event is the second reading of the Trade Union Bill - which looks likely to face a long attritional battle starting, unusually, at this its first outing. The Lib Dem peer Lord Tyler has a motion down to refer key sections of the bill dealing with trade union funding to the Labour Party to a special select committee (and given the composition of the Lords this would not have a government majority).

The key problems with the motion are, first, that quite a number of peers want to get their teeth into the bill in committee stage, and don't want to delay it until the committee reports, and second, the motion would be voted on at the end of the debate, around 10pm. That's a problem because of the iron law of Lords votes, that much depends on dinner. Many peers, particularly the crucial Crossbench vote, tend to drift off after the dinner break, making it far harder for the opposition to muster the votes needed to defeat the government.

Nevertheless, watch this space: as I write 51 peers are down to speak, and the key figure may be the Crossbencher, Lord Bew, who also chairs the Committee on Standards in Public Life. Their report on party funding warned against measures which addressed the funding of one particular party, but not the others. His contribution could be crucial in shaping Crossbench opinion. Watch out too for the maiden speech of Labour's Lord (Spencer) Livermore - a key party apparatchik, who managed their last General Election campaign.

Tuesday 12 January

The Commons begins (11.30 am) with Foreign Office questions - followed by a Ten Minute Rule Bill on Criminal Driving (Justice for Victims) from the Lib Dem Greg Mulholland, who has campaigned on this issue since constituents were killed by drink drivers. His bill will seek to strengthen penalties for serious criminal driving offences that lead to serious injury or death, and will also demand better treatment for victims within the justice system.

After running into the small hours of last Tuesday morning, the report stage of the Housing and Planning Bill will resume - with a ring-fenced three hours of detailed debate. One issue to watch out for is that of replacing sold-off social housing in high-cost housing areas in England, outside London.

The government, which has already accepted a "two-for-one" replacement rule when social housing is sold under the bill in London, is faced with a possible amendment from Tory backbenchers Nicola Blackwood and Ben Howlett to extend the same deal to other high cost areas, like their Oxford and Bath constituencies. Ministers may offer some concessions, rather than vote them down.

It is also worth noting that this bill could see the first outing of the new English Votes for English Laws system, with an hour set aside for the new-look Legislative Grand Committees. There will be an England-only Grand Committee and another of English and Welsh MPs to demonstrate their consent to laws which only affect them, and show they're not being imposed by the votes of MPs from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

It will be a milestone, but not a particularly prominent one, because while parts of the bill are highly contentious, the bones of contention are not cross-border. So expect a rapid-fire series of votes to endorse different sections of the bill.

And I'm told the SNP don't intend to kick up a fuss to mark this first occasion when they will be unable to vote. Were any part of the bill to be voted down there would probably have to be a re-run of the report stage to deal with any changes, but no-one really expects that to happen. This is a new procedure, and although I'm told the Commons officials have held a rehearsal, there is the possibility of a bit of confusion and befuddlement as MPs come to grips with it. But, if all goes well, a pretty perfunctory third reading will follow.

In Westminster Hall, the Conservative ex-minister Nick Herbert leads a debate on the Global fund to fight AIDS, TB and malaria (9.30am - 11am). In the afternoon, Sir Alan Haselhurst, whose constituency includes Stansted Airport, will lead a debate on the effect of airport expansion on the Anglian Region (2.30pm - 4pm).

In the Lords (from 2.30pm) it looks unlikely that peers will press their luck again on votes for 16 year-olds. They'll be considering Commons amendments to the Cities and Local Government Devolution Bill including the one which removed their amendment from last year to lower the voting age. There doesn't seem to be much appetite to reject the verdict of MPs.

Then it's on to the final day of committee stage debate on the Welfare Reform and Work Bill - doubtless teeing up issues which may be forced to a vote in due course at Report Stage.

Wednesday 13 January

The Commons opens (11.30 am) with half an hour of Welsh questions, before moving on to Prime Minister's Question Time, at noon.

The day's Ten Minute Rule Bill, from Labour's Toby Perkins, is on an English National Anthem for use at sporting events that involve individuals or teams representing England.

That's followed by an SNP Opposition Day Debate on trade, exports, innovation and productivity.

The adjournment debate sees a rare chance for Labour's deputy chief whip Alan Campbell to speak in the Chamber. He'll be raising the issue of catastrophic sporting injuries and the case of his constituent Steven Cox, who was injured in a rugby match 10 years ago. Since then he has sought information from the RFU to confirm what really happened. The wider point is how to get more independent investigations or at least independent review of the way catastrophic incidents are handled. Mr Campbell is hoping the Sports Minister Tracey Crouch will say something positive in the context of her review of the Sports Strategy.

In Westminster Hall, the subjects for debate include the effect of the roll-out of Universal Credit in the North West led by Labour's Mary Rimmer (9.30am- 11am) and defence procurement (11am - 11.30am) led by UKIP's Douglas Carswell. In his earlier Conservative incarnation, he toyed with a run for chair of the Commons Defence Select Committee, specifically as a critic of the performance of defence contractors.

In the Lords (3pm) the main event is a "taking the voices" debate on the Strathclyde Review - the proposal from the Conservative former Leader of the Lords that the House's power to kill secondary legislation should be removed and replaced with a power to ask the government to reconsider. This was the government's response to the Lords Vote to block controversial Tax Credit cuts until peers were satisfied that they had met certain conditions.

As I write, 28 peers are down to speak on this proposal - I suspect the key voices will be Crossbench constitutionalists like the former Clerk of the Commons, Lord Lisvane (the artist formerly known as Sir Robert Rogers) and maybe Lord Hennessey. One key complaint is that secondary legislation is sometimes used as a vehicle for major policy changes, and many peers think that's an abuse of procedure.

Thursday 14 January

The Commons kicks off (9.30 am) with questions to the government's top legal advisor, the Attorney General Jeremy Wright, and the Minister for Women and Equalities Nicky Morgan. And then there's the weekly Business Statement, from the Leader of the House.

The subject for the main debate will be chosen by the Backbench Business Committee - keep an eye on their next meeting on Monday.

In the Lords (from 11am) there will be a series of debates led by backbench Labour peers - the first, on the ability of the NHS to meet present and future demands, looks an interesting one. And watch out for Lord Campbell-Savours on the potential use of identity documentation in dealing with the challenges of assuring the identity of individuals - opinion in the Lords on identity cards is probably more polarised than that in the Commons.

And there will also be a 90 minute debate on the ratification of the Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict.

Friday 15 January

Neither House is sitting.