Autumn Statement: Philip Hammond's political challenge

Amid the howling winds of a storm that came across the English channel at the weekend, a few hatches were being fastened down at the Treasury.

The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave a round of interviews on Sunday morning adopting a cautious tone on the economic outlook.

He spoke of slowing business investment, higher inflation, and "eye-watering" levels of government debt.

It came ahead of his first major economic announcement - Wednesday's Autumn Statement.

Mr Hammond reflected on some apparent ill-winds from the continent by saying that Brexit negotiations will bring "an unprecedented level of uncertainty".

Commentators were predicting a slowing of economic growth, he said.

All this provided the economic context - as he saw it - to the next in a series of crucial political events before the government pushes the EU exit button by April next year.

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The Autumn Statement will give us the first clues as to how ministers intend to steer the economy and the public finances into the start of the EU negotiation period.

And it will come alongside an economic outlook from the government's tax and spending watchdog - the Office for Budget Responsibility - which will cover the period beyond Britain's planned exit from the EU.

Besides the financial assessments, Mr Hammond has a political path to navigate strewn with trip hazards.

First, he must decide how far he needs to mitigate any "uncertainty" ahead. During the summer the Treasury made it clear it was abandoning the tough spending rules imposed by George Osborne - which said that the government's books must be balanced by 2020.

The Brexit vote had changed the circumstances, said Mr Hammond, so new fiscal rules were required to deal with the "turbulence" that might arrive.

Some commentators speculated that a government spending splurge may be in the offing.

But appearing to show too much "stimulus" may anger cabinet colleagues who argued hardest for Brexit - and who believe too much emphasis on risk and uncertainty can be self-fulfilling.

Mr Hammond watched the events of the summer - when Brexiteers criticised the Bank of England for reacting too soon by cutting interest rates to record lows, when in their view the economic circumstances did not merit it.

The mood music from the chancellor is certainly not at that pitch.

He has spoken instead of the need for credibility in managing the public finances - code for keeping spending down.

He dropped a hint that he is likely to stick to George Osborne's savings to Universal Credit and other welfare spending - a move that has been much criticised by Labour.

But a retreat too far towards the tough fiscal rules adopted by his predecessor would leave him open to criticism from opposition parties.

They would say the government had abandoned those it pledged to help who are 'just managing' to get by.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests the fall in the value of the pound is likely to push up prices by around 2.5%, with food, fuel and clothing among the items worst affected.

The chancellor knows the line he has to tread: Not overplaying the uncertainty yet showing support for voters likely to feel the squeeze; being seen to support investment and job creation but staying credible in managing the public finances.

Meanwhile, the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday is likely to be pored over for any hints as to direction of travel on Brexit.

The watchdog bases its five year outlook on stated government policy - but there has been very little detail of that around when it comes to the UK's potential negotiating stance.

The signs so far are that the Treasury is attempting to shift the focus with press releases on funding tech and infrastructure, being a "global leader" for free trade and investment - making Britain "match fit" for life after Brexit.

Labour is trying to carve out its point of difference by accusing Mr Hammond of being "weak" in refusing to abandon austerity completely.

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell calls all this "gimmicks and giveaways" and says the Treasury should be spending significantly more on infrastructure and job creation.

The party says it would put £500bn into such projects over 10 years, funded through borrowing, while balancing the books on "day to day" spending and taxation.

The government calls this "fantasy economics".

So expect a relatively low-key Autumn Statement - but one in whose finer details we may be able to glean more about the government's stance on Brexit, whatever the weather.