Conservatives: Where is Britain's 'Macron moment'?

In all the conversations about the next stage in British politics, the focus quickly turns to the need for a "Macron moment".

Is it possible in Britain's parliamentary democracy, the conversations go, to imagine a version of the 2017 French presidential election?

Emmanuel Macron, a semi-outsider, vanquished France's two largest parties. And he also defeated Marine Le Pen, who had put in the far-right Front National's strongest ever performance in a presidential election.

Yet until now the thinking has always been that it would be impossible to enter Downing Street directly via this route.

Unlike in France, where the president is directly elected by the people, the British prime minister (a humble head of government) has to command the confidence of parliament.

British prime ministers have to earn their spurs on the backbenches and on opposition or government frontbenches before they are seen as a serious contender for high office.

Jeremy Corbyn, a backbencher for 32 years, started to rewrite these rules in 2015 when he managed to appeal - over the heads of the parliamentary Labour party - to grassroots members thirsting for change.

If he makes it to No 10, it would qualify as a mini-Macron moment, although he would by then have been auditioning for the part as opposition leader for around half a decade.

Jeremy Corbyn's Momentum campaign group has propelled him forward despite opposition from MPs.

In the Conservative party the younger generation of MPs are wondering whether they may be able to provide a truer Macron moment - finding a candidate to leap frog over the older generation and straight into No 10.

I understand that conversations are being held among the younger generation of Tory MPs, elected in 2015 and 2017, to find an agreed candidate to support once Theresa May stands down.

I am told that if the prime minister were to be forced out in the near future they would hold back and wait for the following leadership contest. But if she were to go at a time of her own choosing in the next few years then they would field a candidate.

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There are some bright and impressive Conservative MPs elected in the last two elections. Many of them are, to put it mildly, fed up with the current contenders who command the headlines.

They believe that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove should be disqualified because they both failed in spectacular fashion during the 2016 leadership contest. Many believe that Jacob Rees-Mogg would be divisive because he is so closely associated with one side on Brexit.

No telephone lines are being installed and no campaigns are being organised. But these are the five candidates who are, whether they like it or not, being tipped to create a Tory Macron moment. Listed in alphabetical order of their constituencies they are:

• James Cleverly, Tory deputy chairman and MP for Braintree since 2015. An accomplished communicator, he is one of the few Tories to have commanded social media with a combination of humour and political bite.

• Bim Afolami, ministerial aide in the transport department and MP for Hitchin and Harpenden since 2017. A former corporate lawyer, he is fast emerging as one of the smartest thinkers and communicators of his Tory generation.

Kemi Badenoch entered Parliament in 2017 as part of the Tories' newest generation.

• Vicky Atkins, Home Office minister and MP for Louth and Horncastle since 2015. Among the first of her intake to be appointed a minister, she is a Cambridge-educated lawyer who worked as a barrister before entering parliament.

• Kemi Badenoch, Conservative vice-chair and MP for Saffron Walden since 2017. Her highly regarded warm-up speech at the Conservative conference in 2017 was overlooked after Theresa May's disastrous performance.

• Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the commons foreign affairs select committee and MP for Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. The former army intelligence officer stamped his mark on Westminster when he won election as chair of the committee just two years after entering parliament.

Some of the five voted Remain, others voted Leave, some hold junior positions, others hold none in government. Some will be horrified by the thought they are being mentioned as candidates for the top, others will be chuffed.

But the five all have one thing in common. They are seen either as potential unity candidates should the Conservative party wish to end its Brexit civil war or they simply stand out as candidates it would be impossible to ignore.

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If one were to emerge it would not be an exact Macron parallel because they are, unlike the French president in 2017, parliamentarians. But unlike Macron, none of the possible contenders has served in cabinet.

A rule of thumb in politics at the moment is to be wary of making predictions. But one thing is clear: the next generation of Tories is growing mightily impatient with their seniors.

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