Brexit: Who or what could be ‘chucked’?

Brexiteers have had great success in commanding headlines with their "Chuck Chequers" campaign. Consign your Brexit blueprint to the dustbin, embrace a more traditional free trade deal and you will unite Conservatives, goes the argument to Theresa May.

In Brussels there is talk of how the prime minister may have to do a bit of chucking of a rather different variety.

One veteran wonders whether her route to a Brexit deal may ultimately come down to a choice between chucking one of two options: the Democratic Unionist Party or her international trade secretary Liam Fox.

The thinking is that, in the end, there will be no choice between those two options. The prime minister would stand by the DUP and be prepared to wave goodbye to Dr Fox.

Thoughts around a new chucking have arisen because officials in Brussels can see - amid the haze of the fiendishly complex Brexit negotiations - the outlines of a deal.

But it will involve compromises on both sides. And that is where the chucking comes in, with a bit of that by the EU side too.

Who to chuck?

If the prime minister were to endorse the EU's plan to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland - the so called "backstop" - she would have to chuck the DUP. The current EU plan is to keep Northern Ireland in the EU customs union and parts of the single market to guarantee no checks on the Northern Irish border. That would involve additional checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The Democratic Unionist Party - the clue is in the middle part of the name - is adamant that it will never agree to checks that would place additional barriers within the United Kingdom. It is dawning on the EU that most GB politicians agree with Theresa May that no UK prime minister could sign up to this.

So chucking the DUP is not an option.

If the EU's version of the backstop falls then the UK's backstop comes into play. And that's where Liam Fox enters the picture.

The UK is asking for the whole of the UK to enter into a customs arrangement with the EU which would would be half in and half out of the customs union. The UK would observe the common external tariff but would be out of the common commercial policy. This is designed to allow Dr Fox to sign trade deals around the world after Brexit.

The EU is adamant that it will not agree to a half-in-half-out version of the customs union arrangement. One EU source tells me: "You can't accept EU tariffs on goods and then run around the world trying to cut your own trade deals."

So the UK would have to abide by the common commercial policy, severely limiting Dr Fox's ability to sign trade deals. That might mean chucking Dr Fox unless he is happy to limit his jobs to signing deals on services for as long as this version of the backstop lasts.

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The chucking doesn't end there. The EU would have to chuck its current stance that a UK-wide customs arrangement could not be included in the withdrawal agreement that is under negotiation. The EU is insisting that only its version of the backstop can be included in that agreement and the UK's idea would have to wait for the future trade deal that is due to be finalised after Brexit.

That is unacceptable to the UK because the withdrawal agreement would lead to an international treaty. So anything outside that treaty may not have legal force.

I understand that EU officials are open to showing some flexibility in this area. If progress is made, if the UK compromises, then the EU could look seriously at including a modified version of a UK-wide customs arrangement in the withdrawal treaty. That could be a hugely significant step.

Nothing is ever straightforward with Brexit so the chucking options may never materialise. The UK insists, for example, that the UK-wide customs arrangement should be time limited with a clear mechanism for it to end once a UK-EU trade deal is agreed.

The EU insists that the Northern Ireland backstop should be "all weather" - a guarantee that it will apply indefinitely if a future trade deal fails to guarantee no hard border in Northern Ireland.

The Brexit talks will pick up, but there are ever present pitfalls as Theresa May found out overnight when she responded favourably to an EU suggestion to extend the transition period.

The prime minister did that to give more time to discuss the future trade deal during the transition. Success there would mean the backstop would never be needed, in No 10's eyes.

The furore back in the UK however, shows that making moves in Brussels can have major consequences on home soil.

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