Brexit: Will talks follow the familiar script?
- Published
Will they? Won't they? Parliament has packed up. MPs are heading back to their constituencies. But almost as soon as they get home, they may well be heading straight back to Westminster if there is a Brexit deal for them to consider.
The assumption of many, including as expressed by a cabinet minister on Thursday, is that they will be back here early next week to consider, and sign up to the trade deal that's been the subject of negotiations for so many months.
"Rational heads will prevail," they said, suggesting that everything is lining up for a deal within the next few days.
And sure, if we follow the familiar script then politicians are about to snatch a victory with just the right dollop of bluster on both sides, and do what both sides agree is the sensible thing and get an agreement sorted, not least to avoid chaos and political embarrassment.
But, it's not just that the statement from the prime minister gives, perhaps quite predictable warnings that the EU has to budge to get a deal done.
It's a negotiation, if they didn't still have to budge, the agreement would have been concluded by now.
It's that when you talk privately to those close to the talks, which is right now a very small group of people indeed, there is a concern on the UK side that the chances of a deal not happening have been under priced.
There's particular concern even at this late stage that the EU has been pushing for exemptions to allow it, as a bloc, to give subsidies as it sees fit, in a way that the UK just wouldn't see as being fair.
The row over state aid is not new. But it seems also not to be really over.
And the dispute over how much fish can be caught in each other's waters is not settled either.
An EU source suggested the the prime minister wants to be "free" of any obligations to the EU by the time of the next election, but that the time frame is simply too fast for the EU to agree.
And on this side of the Channel, there is concern about how much the French President is really willing to move, might it be easier for him, given an approaching election, to 'sell' no deal, rather than create any impression that he has backed down to the UK?
If you visit this page often, then you will be very familiar by now with the panto, 'oh yes they will! oh no they won't!' narrative of Brexit.
That normally resolves with a happy ending. But don't be so sure this time, in this strangest of years, that it will follow a familiar script.
- Published30 December 2020
- Published18 December 2020
