Big 'ifs' remain about when lockdown can end

The way we were: Ministers don't want another lockdown after this one

On Thursday we talked here about politicians' reluctance to stick dates in all our diaries about when restrictions might start to lift.

As suggested, the chatter about dates has increased, and the pressure on ministers to name the day, or at least sketch what the way out looks like, is building day-by-day.

Ministers have talked about "before Easter", "after Easter".

The prime minister sounded a tad more hopeful on Monday when he talked again about looking - before the day when the most vulnerable are due to have had their jabs - at what could possibly be relaxed at that point in the middle of next month.

But not much has shifted in terms of the expectation about restrictions being with us for a long time yet, even though the big picture keeps showing vaccinations up, and the number of daily cases down.

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What the government has not yet done, however, is set out official criteria on exactly how the decision will be taken.

First time round, in classic Whitehall fashion, there were "five tests" to be met before lockdown could be lifted.

And there was repeated focus on getting the "R" number below one before anything would move.

This time the hurdles are a bit less prescriptive, described by Health Secretary Matt Hancock when I asked him for specifics on Monday, and set out by Boris Johnson when he instructed the country to stay at home for the second time, only three weeks ago.

It's worth revisiting exactly what he said then:

• "But if our understanding of the virus doesn't change dramatically once again…

• "If the rollout of the vaccine programme continues to be successful…

• "If deaths start to fall as the vaccine takes effect…

• "And, critically, if everyone plays their part by following the rules…

• "Then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half-term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers."

Those were big "ifs" then and they are big "ifs" now, and they are not that well defined.

We don't know when the lockdown will be lifted, nor from that list very much about the specifics of how the decision will be made.

But we can add to the list another factor being studied by government - the effect the vaccine has on how the disease is transmitted.

There is a further political ambition that brings a caution too. Last time, the lifting of restrictions had a long hangover, with criticism that the doors opened when South-East England was ready, before it was really safe everywhere else.

A few months later, leaders across the UK had to go back on their promises they had made to the public about Christmas.

However eager ministers are to open the doors, when it beings to happen, in a few more weeks, or a few more months, they are determined to make it the last.