Hurdles ahead for Johnson and Sturgeon as election approaches

The political year ahead will be crucial for Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon.

Planting his feet on Scottish turf is not risk free for Boris Johnson. Not just because the visit gave Nicola Sturgeon fodder for an easy jibe over travelling during lockdown.

But the Conservatives are acutely aware that the prime minister's political personality is turn-off for many voters there.

And while his trip was designed to show off the work England and Scotland does together, it's also highlighted the very trend that unionists fear.

Over the last six months, polls suggest support for Scottish independence has been hardening, with consistently just over half the population seeming on board.

But there's a stiffening attitude in the UK government too - that the argument for the union won't be won with silence.

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So Downing Street is on the hunt for ways to underline the government's relevance in Scotland - whether that's more direct spending on the ground, or emphasising UK wide projects, like developing vaccines.

And there are many hurdles for the SNP before another referendum could be fought, let alone won.

Even if they win a clear majority in the Scottish election in May, Boris Johnson will say no to another referendum.

Even if the SNP then finds a way of holding a vote, there'd be pressure to give more clarity on crucial issues for a potential independent state - how currency would work, exactly how they would trade with the rest of the UK?

There is nothing automatic about a poll lead now translating into independence later. As one senior figure put it, 'there are still lots of ifs and buts'.

But a new compelling vision of the union in the 21st Century is not much in evidence either. Photo ops in Glasgow for Boris Johnson are hardly likely to work on their own.