Batley and Spen by-election: What's at stake for the main political parties?
- Published
Voters go to the polls on Thursday to elect a new MP for the seat of Batley and Spen.
The West Yorkshire constituency voted for Labour's Tracy Brabin at the last general election, but she stood down following her election as West Yorkshire's mayor in May.
The parties contesting the seat have a lot riding on the result. So what's at stake?
Labour
"If we can't win white working class voters in Hartlepool and if we lose South Asian voters in Batley, this raises the question of where in the North can we ever win?"
The words of this former Labour official underlines just how much is at stake for Labour.
Existential questions will be raised if it looks like the party is on a losing streak. Yet Labour has a narrow majority of little more than 3,000 votes in the seat, and there would be a wealth of very specific reasons for a loss.
There are concerns amongst some Muslim voters that the party leadership hasn't spoken out robustly enough on behalf of the Palestinians. There are wide-ranging complaints about the Labour-run council.
And both Labour and Conservative sources say that Sir Keir Starmer's party would probably win if the ex-Labour MP George Galloway hadn't stood. He has been picking at the scab of Labour's vulnerabilities - globally and locally.
Some visiting MPs think the seat is all but lost, though Labour campaigners have a heavy presence on the ground and believe they can still win. But they know that at best they have a narrow route to victory.
Batley and Spen had a Tory MP from 1983 to 1997
They have to persuade, at the very least, older and usually loyal Asian voters to vote for them.
They have to convince voters across the board who are discontented with local services that this is due to years of central government austerity, and not just the fault of the council. And they have to hope that their candidate will appeal to the voters Labour lost in 2019.
The former MP Jo Cox - killed in 2016 - is held in high regard across the constituency and her sister Kim Leadbeater is an energetic campaigner who presents herself as a community champion - almost above party politics - and who lives locally.
But as one Labour source put it: "If we win, Kim will get the credit. If we lose, Keir will get the blame."
So despite the specific circumstances in Batley and Spen, Sir Keir's opponents inside and outside his party will suggest that to lose two-by elections in as many months wouldn't just be unfortunate, but careless.
I don't expect a defeat to provoke an immediate leadership challenge, but there will be calls for Sir Keir to step down and his authority would be further eroded.
Victory, though, would relieve some of the pressure he has been under since the English local elections. And with expectations so low, simply retaining a Labour seat while in opposition would actually feel more like a gain.
Conservatives
The Conservatives locally have the weight of expectation upon their political shoulders.
The seat hasn't had a Tory MP since 1997 - and after 11 years in power nationally, conventional wisdom would suggest it is not a constituency that the party should be able to seize.
It's not a 'red wall' seat - it is more ethnically diverse than many and is in the commuter belt of Leeds. Indeed, their candidate Ryan Stephenson is a councillor there. But having gained so many Labour seats in 2019, the party is under pressure to deliver another victory.
And that pressure has increased following the loss of Chesham and Amersham to the Lib Dems, as failing to win would further deflate Boris Johnson's punctured impression of invincibility.
With the lifting of the remaining Covid restrictions delayed, and the resignation of Matt Hancock as health secretary, the political weather is more turbulent than at the May local elections.
Voters in Batley will go to the polls on Thursday
Conservative insiders also report that Brexit is no longer a motivating issue - so the challenge is, at the very least, to try to solidify support amongst those who had switched to the party from Labour at the 2019 general election.
Conservative sources say their campaign has been inadvertently aided by the presence of Workers' Party leader George Galloway - they are hopeful he will erode Labour's vote in parts of the constituency that is harder for them to reach.
On some issues - such as criticising the performance of the Labour-led council, and highlighting the problems of anti-social behaviour - the messaging has been quite similar.
Victory, however it is achieved, might well obscure the recent by election defeat, and suggest that northern England is becoming more politically hostile to Labour. And the prime minister would welcome the distraction it would provide from some of his current political problems.
The Liberal Democrats
There will be no repeat of the Chesham and Amersham victory in Batley and Spen. The total Lib Dem vote in 2019 was lower than the size of Labour's majority.
Support in the constituency is concentrated around Cleckheaton, where the party has local councillors. So in a tight contest, the candidate Tom Gordon could find his vote squeezed.
As expectations are low, there is little consequences for the Lib Dems here. The party nationally believes that the political map of Britain is being redrawn, with the party best placed to get on the Conservatives in a range of seats in southern England.
But Batley and Spen would never be a Lib Dem target, so the question is whether Lib Dem voters will remain loyal, or be tempted to vote tactically.
The Workers' Party
'Defeat is victory' isn't the party's slogan - but it could be. The party was founded in 2019 by George Galloway, who, as candidate for the Respect party, unseated Labour at the Bradford West by-election in 2012.
But in Batley and Spen, Mr Galloway doesn't need to win the seat: he is out to win the argument. He hopes a Labour defeat will put pressure on Sir Keir Starmer to resign.
Campaign literature put out by George Galloway's Workers' Party
One of his campaign leaflets says explicitly: "You can send Labour a message on July 1st - Remove Starmer." Some of his supporters say he is a dark horse who could win.
They say his anti-crime message and campaign to re-open the local police station is resonating with white as well as South Asian voters, who believe their area is not getting a fair crack of the whip.
While George Galloway is certainly winning the poster war in the constituency, the only poll so far suggests he is third, well behind the two main parties - and could instead simply make the difference between victory or defeat for Labour.
And certainly other supporters of his say this is the aim. One of them said: "We wanted George to stand to split the Labour vote. He's a great campaigner."
The thinking is that one extra Conservative MP doesn't make much of a difference one way or another, but a protest vote against Labour would not simply put pressure on its leadership, but could force it to be more outspoken on the Middle East, and on Kashmir.
As one community leader - formerly a strong Labour supporter - put it: "All parties need to know that Muslim votes matter."
Yorkshire Party
Analysis by James Vincent, Yorkshire political editor
The Yorkshire Party is coming off the back of a hugely impressive showing in the West Yorkshire mayoral election in May. They came third - beating the Lib Dems and the Green Party - taking just under 10% of the vote.
That was a pretty big surprise and the party announced it would be standing in Batley and Spen immediately afterwards. As their name suggests they've been involved in elections across Yorkshire since they were formed in 2014.
They are in favour of a stronger devolution deal that gives Yorkshire more powers to decide how to spend money here. Their main goal is for Yorkshire to have an elected assembly within the UK.
Candidate Corey Robinson says that decision making "is detached from communities".
The party is hoping to pick up votes from people disillusioned with Westminster. Although they have a small number of councillors in Yorkshire, they've never stood in Batley and Spen before.
This will be a huge test for them. Can they repeat what they did in May at the mayoral election? They probably can't win it - but a good showing will help them grow locally.
Candidates standing in the by election (listed alphabetically by surname):
Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance
Mike Davies - Alliance For Green Socialism
Jayda Fransen - Independent
George Galloway - Workers Party
Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats
Howling Laud Hope - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Susan Laird - Heritage Party
Kim Leadbeater - Labour Party
Oliver Purser - Social Democratic Party
Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU
Ryan Stephenson - Conservative Party
Jack Thomson - UK Independence Party
Jonathan Tilt - Freedom Alliance
Anne Marie Waters - The For Britain Movement