Budget 2021: Warm-up makes way for black and white detail

Rishi Sunak with red Labrador puppy NovaUK government

Chancellor Rishi Sunak released images of himself with red Labrador puppy Nova, preparing for the Budget

By Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor
@bbclaurak

Whisper it. After the economy took an absolute hammering during the pandemic, might the chancellor actually be in a much cheerier political mood than he could have predicted?

During his Budget warm-up in the last few days, Rishi Sunak has already totted up promises of around an extra £20bn of spending, as well as announcing how some of the cash that was already promised is going to be carved up.

News about raising the national living wage and paving the way for staff whose wages are funded by the taxpayer to get pay rises next year are in turn raising expectations that the chancellor has more in his piggy bank than the official number-crunchers had predicted and, crucially, that he is willing to spend it.

Indeed, while there was a logic to signalling public sector wage increases next year, there was no technical requirement on No 11 to make that clear and public this week, sources suggest.

It was a political choice - not just to open the door to wages going up again for the 2.5 million workers in England who've had the brakes slammed on, but also to let it be known.

Hold on for a second, though. On the specifics, there is no guarantee that unfreezing the wages of those workers will mean they get pay rises that aren't eroded by inflation.

The same goes for increases for workers on low pay, and cuts to universal credit will pinch too.

Don't forget either that the chancellor has recently announced a big change to the tax system in National Insurance that will cost families and firms too.

And in general, Rishi Sunak is a Conservative who one day might fancy an even bigger job next door and wants to polish his credentials as someone who believes in keeping spending under control.

That's a hard argument to make after an emergency period when getting hundreds of billions of pounds out of the No 11 door was the priority.

It's also a hard argument to make when there are very real fears about the cost of living. The government might be feeling a bit more flush than it expected to, but tell that to a family whose energy bills have just leapt up.

Mr Sunak is worried about inflation, and the effect that possible interest rises would have on the government's epic pandemic-induced debts.

The chancellor also wants to move on from the emergency to a more normal kind of economic debate.

UK government

The chancellor is concerned about inflation and wants to be seen as careful with our money

Don't be surprised therefore if he also signals a way of tightening up (those fiscal rules didn't just disappear down the back of the sofa).

And don't be surprised if some parts of government are asked to contend with what Whitehall would call "tight settlements" - what you and I might call being pretty strapped for cash.

Having treated us all to cosy snaps of him and his Labrador, Nova, and him hard at work in his athleisure wear (socks and sliders won't be the most important debate of the next 24 hours), Rishi Sunak wants to give the political impression that he's a chancellor we can all be comfortable with.

He wants to be seen as careful with our money but also not afraid to spend it on things that matter - a chancellor who has modern Tory instincts but won't ditch the party's traditions.

But remember Budget warm-ups are just that.

However many announcements there have already been (and even though the Speaker was furious, a carefully choreographed build-up has been standard practice for more years than I care to remember), however carefully the photographs of the prep have been thought through and selected, what matters is what he actually says at lunchtime on Wednesday.

What matters are the numbers - what's in black and white - in the end.

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