Birthday party claims add to PM's political baggage

Boris Johnson was asked on Monday morning whether he could guarantee there wouldn't be any more damaging revelations before senior official Sue Gray publishes her findings on what went on behind closed doors in government during lockdown.

The prime minister chose not to give that guarantee, or indeed really to address the question.

It was answered on Monday evening, when ITV News reported a birthday party for him held in June 2020, with staff mingling in the Cabinet Room itself.

One source who attended the event confirmed to the BBC it had taken place.

Carrie Johnson arrived with a cake, and led birthday wishes to him. Sandwiches and snacks were laid out, I'm told.

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And in a bizarre plot twist that might gladden a Hollywood writer, she had the interior designer renovating the PM's official flat, Lulu Lytle, briefly in tow (Ms Lytle's firm says she arrived to speak to Mr Johnson, and wasn't invited as a guest to the celebrations).

Boris Johnson's critics observe two strands of scandal coming together as the crescendo approaches - given the controversy over how the flat revamp was funded.

It's another damaging set of claims, as Conservative MPs are already considering whether Boris Johnson's baggage is more of a turn-off than the political benefits of keeping him.

As the list of claims grows, the sense of chaos increases, with Tory figures waging public spats on other fronts too - bullying claims, racism claims, even the spectacle of a member of the House of Lords resigning at the dispatch box.

Lord Agnew said there was no connection between his decision and the current fiasco, but his decision to walk, greeted with applause by peers, hardly helps give the impression that the government is under control.

Many Conservative MPs feared before Monday night that there would be more to come about what really went on in No 10.

Goings-on in Downing Street are under intense scrutiny ahead of Sue Gray's report

The fact that a new set of allegations has emerged in itself won't be a shock.

Yet it makes it harder still for Downing Street to create the impression that when staff occasionally erred, they did so for the right reasons - that a breach every now and then was a group of hard-working staffers who fell some way short.

The prime minister was there himself, even if it was only for ten minutes. The event was organised as a celebration to mark his birthday.

It's hardly necessary to remind anyone that the potency of these claims lies in the experience of millions of members of the public during lockdown - the events people missed out on, the suffering of separation, compared and contrasted with the perception of what was happening under Boris Johnson's roof.

Moving on

The latest claims are likely to unleash another round of angry public reaction direct to Tory MPs' inboxes too, just at the time when many of them are considering whether Boris Johnson's time might be up.

There are still Conservatives who ask themselves, and their colleagues - are they really going to try to oust a prime minister, the king of a huge majority, over a series of ill-advised events on the premises during a time of emergency?

Some of them cite constituents, who are fed up with the conversation and wish the Westminster village would move on.

But this saga is not just about bowls of crisps or sausage rolls, or whether people were invited to the various gatherings by email or Whatsapp, but the No 10 operation and the prime minister's character.

Once the Sue Gray report lands, it will be for Tory MPs to decide what moving on might mean.