Boris Johnson: The letterati and Conservative gloom

"I begin to wonder if the Tory party has a death wish." So says a senior supporter of Boris Johnson.

"Either we get rid of him or the electorate will get rid of us," says a Conservative MP who wants him out.

After four days of bunting, union flags, Paddington Bear and Jason Donovan, yes - that is the sound of the clunk and clatter of politics returning.

Resuming again, a festival of guesswork to rival any fete or pageant, all focused on the prime minister's future.

I am struck by a couple of things:

Firstly, speaking to Mr Johnson's greatest supporters, his biggest critics, and those somewhere in between, there is a collective gloom within the Conservative Party. A feeling they are in a spot it will be hard to get out of in one piece.

And secondly, very few within the Conservative parliamentary party would be remotely surprised if a vote of confidence happens this week.

But that doesn't mean one definitely will.

A guessing game

A quick reminder of the rules: for the prime minister to face a vote of confidence, 15% of Tory MPs have to ask for one. They do that by writing to Sir Graham Brady, who chairs what's called the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs.

Sir Graham is admirably discreet.

Admirable, that is, unless you're a journalist trying to find out how many letters he has been sent, and how close that total is to 54, the number needed to trigger a vote.

"It's entirely opaque," says a veteran of a past internal skirmish.

Everyone is guessing amid an orgy of speculation.

And if 54 is reached, a majority of Conservative MPs would have to say they no longer had confidence in Boris Johnson to remove him. That is 180 Tory MPs saying so.

The grumblers have been dubbed the "letterati" by one minister I talk to, and most seem to think there isn't a huge amount of coordination between those trying to oust Mr Johnson.

That said, some who are loyal to him point a finger at supporters of Remain in the Brexit referendum and some of the 2019 intake who they accuse of going wobbly at the first sign of trouble.

The bad news, for the prime minister, is his critics don't come from a particular wing or rank of the party - they are scattered throughout it.

On the upside for Mr Johnson, as a supporter of his puts it to me, this means "there isn't a plan, a strategy or a candidate".

In other words, they agree on wanting Boris Johnson out, but they don't agree on much else.

So are things different from back in January, when you may remember we went through this whole rigmarole and it fizzled out?

That, of course, is possible again, but one observer inside the parliamentary party reckons things have changed since then.

MPs are being invited to drinks dos by donors, there is a frisson, a momentum that isn't going away as the party contemplates life after Mr Johnson.

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Let's explore the gloom I'm hearing from Conservative MPs. Two long-standing figures, of polar opposite views on Boris Johnson, both mentioned 1997 to me.

As bleak a year in the modern history of the Conservative Party anyone could cite, when Tony Blair swept to power with a landslide victory for Labour.

"We are getting to the point where if these people don't stop, the public will say we hear this noise and infighting, you're a noisy cabal of narcissists and they'll stop listening," says one figure deeply irritated by those trying to remove the prime minister.

"We are getting dangerously close to that place in the public mind."

Another, keen to evict Mr Johnson from Downing Street, draws the same comparison with the mid to late 90s: the gut feeling of an impression being left with the electorate that it will be impossible to shift.

But that impression for them is around the prime minister's character, which can only change, they argue, by changing prime minister.

A nightmare for the party

And if a vote of confidence doesn't happen this week, then what?

Well, there are two by-elections later this month - one in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon, the other in Wakefield in West Yorkshire - which could prove crucial.

Plenty of Tory MPs fear they will lose both, the former to the Liberal Democrats, the latter to Labour.

And then another blast of the jitters will strike.

(Incidentally, the last time a party lost two by-elections on the same day was more than 30 years ago when the Tories lost Kincardine and Deeside in Aberdeenshire to the Lib Dems, and Langbaurgh in North Yorkshire to Labour. They won them back in the general election the year after.)

Boris Johnson was in the royal box for the Party at the Palace on Saturday night

And, in the meantime, the speculation will rumble on.

Those hoping to shore up Mr Johnson feel they have two arguments they can deploy with the undecided: Who's next? And, he'll win anyway.

In other words, there's no obvious successor and a leadership race will be nightmare for the party.

Plus, more importantly they argue, if there's a vote of confidence, Boris Johnson will probably win.

Even among his critics, most acknowledge this is likely.

But votes of confidence are never good news for a party leader.

And very few Conservatives are confident there won't be one any time soon.