Could the Conservatives lose five by-elections?
- Published
Conversations about elections aren't particularly popular with Conservative MPs just now.
"There's a bit of despondency creeping in," says a minister.
Inflation is not coming down as quickly as many hoped. Homeowners are being whacked by higher mortgage rates. Small boat crossings reached a new June record this year. The prime minister's five targets are looking increasingly challenging.
A few weeks ago, one senior backbencher I spoke to had been cautiously optimistic that Rishi Sunak could turn things around. There's little sign of that positivity now.
"It's looking more and more difficult," they told me this week.
That growing pessimism is not the ideal backdrop for a governing party to go into a set of by-elections, which will be an important indicator of the political mood in the country.
In fact, it's possible the Conservatives could be about to lose five seats.
Yes, five. Let me explain.
Firstly, three by-elections are taking place in two weeks' time - and the Conservatives think they might lose them all.
There's the west London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where Boris Johnson had been the MP until he resigned from Parliament. Labour need to win areas like this if they are going to form the next government, so this seat is a must win on 20 July.
There are some nerves in the Labour Party that ULEZ is proving to be a key issue. The low emissions scheme is being extended by Labour mayor of London Sadiq Khan - and the Conservatives are putting opposition at the centre of the campaign. Labour politicians admit it's proving a problem for them on the doorsteps. Their candidate said this week it wasn't the right time to expand the scheme.
But the consensus so far is that it's unlikely ULEZ anger will be enough to save the seat for the Tories.
Labour is optimistic and senior Tories who have visited the area say the loss might not be as bad as some feared - but is likely to be a loss, nonetheless.
There's also Selby and Ainsty, which had been the North Yorkshire seat of Conservative Nigel Adams, a Boris Johnson ally who quit Parliament at the same time.
On the face of it, this should be safe seat for the Conservatives - they won 60% of vote in 2019 and had a majority of 20,137.
But Labour are eyeing up another scalp here. They think it's possible a mixture of national frustration with the government and local frustration at Mr Adams could help them overturn that majority.
Then there's Somerton and Frome in Somerset. The Conservatives have held this seat since 2015, with another huge majority of 19,213 in 2019. But Tory David Warburton quit Parliament after he was accused of sexual misconduct and drug taking and the Liberal Democrats think they are on track to cause another major upset.
The party is throwing resources at the seat - leader Ed Davey has visited four times since the by-election was confirmed in mid June. Party activists report frustration with the Conservatives that the last MP was embroiled in scandal and remained in post for so long.
One strategist said: "Everything is looking like it's going in the right direction… Rishi Sunak hasn't been able to stem the flood of voters put off by Boris Johnson."
A bad night for the Conservatives on 20 July could see Mr Sunak become the first prime minister for decades to lose three by-elections in one day.
Sir Keir Starmer has been visiting Selby to campaign for candidate Keir Mather
As the senior Tory backbencher mentioned earlier puts it: "My central expectation is that we lose all three."
Although there is little appetite for another leadership challenge, that would set off another debate about what's going wrong and how to fix it.
Some think the party isn't being radical enough on issues like immigration. Others argue Mr Sunak has been too radical - and moved away from the political centre.
But there could be worse to come.
We're expecting a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire soon. We don't know when, because former culture secretary Nadine Dorries hasn't delivered on her promise to stand down yet. And the Conservatives had another colossal majority in 2019 - winning this seat by 24,664.
But both the main opposition parties think they're in with a chance.
Labour finished second last time and the party is pledging to campaign aggressively in the constituency. Party strategists point to encouraging polling - and Sir Keir Starmer has put his trusted ally Peter Kyle in charge of the party's campaign in the seat.
As one strategist puts it: "We're all in."
But the Lib Dems think they have a better chance in a rural seat, pointing to examples of recent victories in Tory heartlands. They argue old Conservative voters might be prepared to make a break from the Tories, but won't be prepared to make the switch to Labour. "We've got real potential to win it… the best Labour can do is stop us winning," says one figure close to the campaign.
This makes Mid Beds particularly interesting. In most recent by-elections, the challenger to a Conservative has been clear. This time both the main opposition parties are battling for that position. That could be good news for the Conservatives - if the vote is split it might allow the Tory candidate to hold the seat.
But it might not. The constituency has one of the highest proportions of mortgage owners in England - an issue both opposition parties are keen to discuss. And equally safe Conservative seats have fallen in recent months.
Finally, there's Tamworth. This is the seat held by Chris Pincher, the former Conservative whip who resigned from government amid sexual harassment allegations (Boris Johnson's handling of the issue helped bring down his government).
Mr Pincher is still an MP but is now facing an eight-week Commons suspension after a report from Parliament's standards commissioner found he groped two people at a London club last year. The recommended sanction - if approved by MPs - would trigger a recall petition in his constituency, potentially leading to a by-election.
The Lib Dem leader, Sir Ed Davey, has already kickstarted the campaign in Mid-Bedfordshire
Labour are already talking up their chances here - saying privately that they will throw the kitchen sink at trying to win it.
The seat could have particular resonance, as one Labour figure points out. In 1996, a year before Tony Blair came to power, Labour won an old version of the seat (South East Staffordshire) - overturning a Conservative majority of 7,192 to win by a massive 13,762. The Conservative majority Labour would need to overturn this time is bigger (19,634) - but strategists think they're in with a shot.
All of which brings us back to the start. There are a lot of factors are play in each seat. But it's possible the Conservatives could lose five seats in the next few months.
The conclusion inside Tory HQ? "They will all be extremely challenging."
When are the by-elections?
Voters in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty constituencies will vote for a new MP on Thursday 20 July.
Here's the list of the candidates standing: