Keir Starmer grapples with how to keep Labour ahead
- Published
As Labour arrives in Liverpool for what could be its final conference before a general election, leader Sir Keir Starmer is grappling with how to convert a commanding poll lead into power.
"One of the most ambitious politicians I have ever met."
That was the verdict on Keir Starmer, before he had even been elected as an MP, by the veteran political journalist Michael Crick, quoted in a biography of the Labour leader by Lord Ashcroft.
The man who might be prime minister, who first arrived in the Commons in 2015 aged 52, is obsessed with winning.
Those who know him well say he detests opposition.
"I want to get on with the real job of winning the next election. I don't find the self-promotion of this process a comfortable experience."
That's another quote - this time from Keir Starmer himself - in Lord Ashcroft's biography, Red Knight.
It's a remark the Labour leader gave to his local paper in London, the Hampstead and Highgate Express, again before he became an MP.
"He's forced himself to get good at politics," observes a friend.
But the big question this weekend is this: what would be good politics for Labour at their party conference, getting under way in Liverpool?
A recent poll conducted by the communications company FGS Global, external suggested there was much more enthusiasm for getting rid of the Conservatives than there was for having Labour instead.
This implies there may be more uncertainty in the political landscape than some polls might suggest.
The Labour leadership know they still have work to do to answer the question "if not them - the Conservatives - why us?".
Nonetheless, the party arrives on Merseyside chipper: the scale of their victory in the Rutherglen and West Hamilton by election, external, just outside Glasgow, allows Labour folk to dream winning the next election really might be doable.
A year ago, the Labour conference felt revelatory. The place swarmed with expectation and there weren't any punch ups in the corner.
There was a harmony about the place, which felt novel.
But people will expect a professional, potential government-in-waiting vibe over the next few days.
That won't be enough to generate buzz and attention. But how much buzz and attention do they need?
"Let's Get Britain's Future Back," is the slogan that will be bandied about. Expect doses of reassurance and hope.
Reassurance that they can trusted with the economy - with a commitment to prioritising economic growth running though lots of the big speeches.
And hope they can make things better, with talk of housebuilding and cheaper, cleaner energy. But how much detail should they offer in terms of policy and ideas?
The general election must be held by January 2025. But the precise date will be chosen by Rishi Sunak. So how does Labour get its countdown right, to a date it doesn't know?
"If Labour are the smallest possible moving target, Labour wins," is one argument made to me.
Perhaps, some think, they have too many policies.
The Australian Labor Party's own review of its general election loss in 2019, external, despite opinion poll leads, blamed having too many policies as a significant factor.
Its then leader, Bill Shorten, had been dubbed by opponents "The Bill Australia Cannot Afford".
A sense of vision is more important, for some.
"Vision is the road, policies are the street lights. At the moment there is plenty of light, but not enough road," I'm told.
But others, equally hopeful of a Labour victory, aren't so sure.
As one put it to me: "It's only ever politicians who are told they have to have a vision. If someone came up to you in the street and said they had a vision, you'd be worried. Why do politicians need to do it?"
"Keir's great skill is being iterative, putting down another building block," they add.
The suggestion being that rather than a single, big thing being unveiled in the next few days, the plan will be about building a set of ideas that add up to something.
And how should Labour respond to the prime minister's policy blitz: ditching the northern stretch of the HS2 high speed rail line, banning smoking for the next generation, changing post-16 education in England?
There is fury at senior levels of the Labour Party at what one source described as Rishi Sunak "salting the earth for a Labour government. They are getting spending in the future off the books so they can spend the money now."
But if Labour accepts, even reluctantly, what Mr Sunak is advocating - as they have over HS2 - doesn't it leave the party looking weak?
"If your opponent wants you to do something, don't do it," says a source, explaining their strategy.
"They want us to be outraged, so clear water between us is created and they can point at all our extra spending."
Plus, they argue, reversing the cancellation of HS2 or some of the delayed green targets wouldn't be practical or promote stability.
But this does allow the Conservatives to portray Labour as callow, even empty.
The key, says one Labour grandee, is to ensure policy development is being turbo-charged in private.
One figure told me recently they felt underwhelmed by what the party currently has in its policy locker.
"The most intense period for me intellectually, in all my time in parliament, were the three years before 1997," a former minister says, describing the "intensely granular detail" that was gone into, to prepare themselves for government.
Keir Starmer says disaffected voters can now see how the Labour Party has changed
This figure suggests leaving announcements about these ideas until early next year, by which time the Conservatives may have run out of time to nick them and implement them before polling day.
They all need a ferocity and a hunger, not just a few close to the leader, says another figure, willing them on.
Develop policy. Announce policy. Don't announce policy yet. Ditch policy. Show vision. No, there's no need.
There are plenty of suggestions being made. All of which serves to prove an observation Keir Starmer has made publicly: as leader of the opposition, you're never short on advice.
Running a functioning, well-liked government is difficult.
Just ask Rishi Sunak.
And so is assembling an electable opposition.
Just ask Keir Starmer.