Will voters unhappy with the Conservatives be attracted to Reform?

On a drizzly afternoon in Dudley town centre, activists from Reform UK are handing out leaflets in an attempt to engage people passing by.

Some simply walk past or dismiss the pamphlets with a wave of their hand, while others stop to talk - including 16-year-old Alex.

He's already heard of Reform UK and supports the party.

"I wouldn't say I'm a Conservative because I'm not, and I wouldn't say I support Labour because I don't support Labour, so it's the other option - I do think we need another option," he said.

"I don't agree with what's going on with the country."

Born out of the Brexit Party, Reform UK has been around since early 2021 but has struggled to gain traction - it has no MPs, and won just six seats at last year's local elections despite standing hundreds of candidates.

Recently, though, it's been creeping up in the polls and according to the BBC's poll tracker now averages 10% - putting the party just ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

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While Reform claims to target Labour and Tory voters, it is some on the Conservative right who have pointed to the party's potential electoral threat as reason for Rishi Sunak to shift his stance on issues Reform has put high on its agenda, such as immigration and tax.

For Nigel Stone, who stopped to hear what the Reform candidates in Dudley had to say, immigration is a concern, but he's not convinced the party has the answers.

"If you're passionate about the UK and things that matter in the UK you would say 'yes you've got me'," he said.

"But when you start to look at the finer details, for me there are questionable issues on a moral front, I would have difficulty in actually voting for them."

'Bit of scepticism'

Reform has pledged to stand candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland at the general election. It says it already has more than 450 people vetted and in place, with some 200 attending a training day in Wakefield before Christmas.

But without the Brexit branding of its predecessor and with former leader Nigel Farage so far refusing to commit to a frontline role in any election campaign, the party acknowledges recognition is a challenge - several people in Dudley hadn't heard of the party.

Andrew Southall, who was out campaigning for Reform, said: "We do grassroots things like table stalls. It's the way to do it, engage with the public. Let them know we're here.

"As a new party, especially if you are considered 'right of centre', people will treat you with a bit of scepticism.

"We are getting great responses, 20% of people know about us and we're polling at 13%. Imagine how high we can poll when more people know about us."

Reform UK activist Andrew Southall joined the campaigning in Dudley

While it might have big ambitions, Reform doesn't yet have proven electoral success.

But Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said even without winning seats - or even matching its current poll ratings - the party could have an outsized impact on the next election.

"The Conservatives are scared of competition from this party," he said. "They're very worried about losing socially conservative Leave-leaning voters to this party.

"They are often voters that other parties competing with the Conservatives - Labour and the Liberal Democrats - are less likely to win.

"The nightmare scenario that the Conservatives are worried about is that Reform slice off 5% or 10% of their vote at one end, they lose another 5%, 10% or 15% at the other end to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

"Put those two sums together, and you've got an awful lot of Conservative MPs out of a job on election night."

'Hype'

For some in the Conservative party, the perceived threat is overblown.

Cllr Patrick Harley, Conservative leader of Dudley Council, said: "I think a lot of it is hype. I think when you're in power as long as the Conservatives have been, when people are feeling the pinch like they are now, you're always looking for an alternative.

"We have some good policies on immigration, on legal immigration let alone illegal immigration. The economy seems to be doing well and recovering post-Covid, so I would say to colleagues in Westminster hold your nerve, be loyal."

Back in Dudley town centre, NHS worker and previous Conservative voter Peter Clappison said he wouldn't vote Tory again, but wouldn't vote Reform either.

"Everything is broken," he said. "It's not just immigration, it's not just taxes it is the entire country. I wouldn't vote for Reform because you'd just be getting ultra-conservatism. We need change, but we don't need that kind of change."

At an evening event for Reform supporters at a local rugby club, there was clear discontent with the status quo, with levels of immigration, crime and tax all being raised.

Julie Tibbetts, who was at the event with her neighbours, said: "I've been looking for a credible alternative to voting for the Tories because I've always voted Tory, I just can't bring myself to do it in 2024.

"It's Rishi, it's not fulfilling the promise on the small boats and the immigrants, it's basically the infighting."

It's only a snapshot, but such sentiment might explain why some Conservative nerves in Westminster are jangling.