SNP conference: Passion and pragmatism

Ms Sturgeon is taking a cautious approach to the prospect of a second independence referendum

Sometimes politics is about passion. More commonly, it is about pragmatism. Very often, it is a blend of the two. Such is the epithet we might usefully attach to Nicola Sturgeon's declaration re the prospects of a rerun referendum.

Those sensible souls who listen to Good Morning Scotland had an early foretaste of the plan. (There is a clause in the Scotland Act which says that all major announcements should first be broadcast on the wireless by the BBC. If there isn't, there should be.)

For the few who do not fall into that category, a summary. Unless there is a significant and sustained switch in support from No to Yes, Nicola Sturgeon will not contemplate a second independence referendum in the parliamentary term ahead.

Social houses

Saying which, of course, also presumes an SNP victory. Which, to be clear, Ms Sturgeon definitely does not. But, in the event that it happens, she feels constrained to answer the questions re plebiscite part two.

Pragmatically, Nicola Sturgeon wants her party to talk less right now about post election action - and more about addressing the day to day issues which might help win that election in the first place.

In which regard, I do not expect that her main conference speech on Saturday will address the referendum question in any substantive way. She has had her say. She has confronted the conundrum. She now wants the thousands of delegates here to shift their priority to the economy, education, the NHS, housing. Those May elections.

On which, she led the way by announcing plans for 50,000 social houses in the next parliament - always assuming that the SNP……you get the concept by now.

The SNP leader is respected and adored by the party faithful

So what about that referendum strategy? It is duality driven by necessity. Duality - because she is simultaneously cooling the temperature on an instant poll while stressing that it is far from ruled out. Necessity - because she has few if any serious options.

She could of course absolutely rule out a referendum. Cue gloom among the delegates and challenges from rival parties as to whether such a pledge would last.

Alternatively, she could say: return us to power and we will definitely hold a further plebiscite. She does not want to do that for a simple reason. She fears she would lose - again - and that a second defeat would set back the cause for a generation or a lifetime or perhaps longer, to borrow now displaced timetables from the referendum campaign.

So duality it is. Myself, I think the SNP leadership strategy tends to presume that an early rerun is less likely than otherwise.

To be clear, Nicola Sturgeon yearns for independence. She has by no means abandoned that aim or elided it in any way. She wants Scotland to be an independent nation. The only issue for her is strategy.

Most SNP members understand the pragmatic strategy of the party leadership a second vote on independence

Within her dual strategy, she is essentially saying two things to her party. One, face it, a referendum is not on in the immediate future unless public opinion discernibly and permanently shifts.

Two, if you disagree with that, if you want an early poll, then the answer lies in your own hands. You, the members of the SNP, need to persuade the people of Scotland to change their position from the No vote registered just a year ago.

As she delivered her conference opener in the hall, it was evident that passion still pays in terms of applause. They responded jubilantly to the suggestion that there were key drivers which could boost support for independence: further UK austerity, the replacement of Trident, above all British exit from the EU without Scottish consent.

Told that a referendum might well have to be deferred, the response was decidedly cooler. Not sullen, but solemn. Not the sort of thing they really want to hear, all things being equal.

Do I detect a significant insurrection against the Sturgeon line? I do not. Yes, there is some disquiet, mostly born of frustration that things are not other than they are. But most members understand the pragmatic strategy. What is more, they respect and adore their leader. For the most part, they will take her lead.