Scots population 'to grow and age'
- Published
Scotland's population will continue increasing and ageing, external, according to new projections from the National Records of Scotland.
It predicted the population would rise from 5.4 million in 2016 to 5.58 million in 2026.
The statisticians said by 2041 it would increase to 5.69 million - a rise of 5% over the 25-year period.
The projected increase is driven by migration into Scotland, both from rest of the UK and from overseas.
In 2015-16, there were 31,700 more people migrating to Scotland than leaving.
Migration factor
The NRS said net migration numbers were expected to reduce to about 14,600 more people arriving in Scotland than leaving in 2040-41.
They said number of deaths would continue to exceed the number of births every year.
Last year there were 800 more deaths than births but an ageing population means this could be 10,000 by 2041.
Analysis
By Steven Brocklehurst, BBC Scotland news
Accurately predicting population changes over a 10-year period is difficult and over 25 years it is close to impossible.
The National Records of Scotland take on this task every two years and are very skilled at looking at major variants include fertility, life expectancy and migration.
Analysis of the age profile of the population and other health factors can give pretty good figures but predicting the number of people coming to and leaving Scotland is much harder.
This is important to note as all Scotland's population growth is projected to come from migration.
The figures for net migration have fluctuated wildly over the past 15 years with 31,700 more people arriving than leaving in 2015-16 being one of the highest.
The National Records of Scotland projections show migration from overseas falling substantially over the 25-year period while people arriving from the rest of the UK remains roughly similar.
As the statisticians point out, the figures do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives.
Pension age
The National Records of Scotland said that over the 25-year period the number of people of pensionable age could increase by 25%, despite the age at which people qualify for their pension being lifted.
It said there were currently a large number of people who were around 50 years old who would be 75 by the end of the projected period.
The number of people of working age will increase by 1% and the number of children will decrease by 2%, the figures predicted.
The National Population Projections for Scotland are based on the latest population estimates for 2016.
The populations of the other countries in the UK are also projected to increase.
The UK as a whole is projected to increase in population by 11%, with England's population going up by 12%, Northern Ireland by 8% and Wales's population by 5% between 2016 and 2041.
Over the next decade, 46% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 54% attributed to net international migration.