Green shoots of tourist growth

More tourists are choosing to travel by rail

• The search for greener ways to travel is a high priority for the tourism industry, driven by consumer pressure - and much of that from younger generations.

• The Scottish travel sector has challenges to combat 'flight shame' when it is distant to many target markets.

• Other trends Identified by VisitScotland include sole travellers, the over-loaded itinerary, a desire for authentic experiences, along with numerous tech innovations.

Prince Harry was in Edinburgh this week. You may have missed his "just call me Harry" visit.

You're more likely to have missed the reason for it. His semi-Royal non-Highness has chosen green tourism and travel as a cause he wishes to champion, his name atop the list of big travel firms - including Edinburgh's Skyscanner - signed up to the Travelyst organisation.

It aims at thinking through the challenge of reducing the industry's very large carbon footprint - something like 5% of total carbon emissions, and growing. The event In Edinburgh drew together many of the big shots of Scottish tourism, with the help of princely celebrity stardust fresh off the plane from Canada.

The event was late in the process of further influencing the Scottish tourism strategy, due for publication at the gathering of the Scottish Tourism Alliance next week, but most of those present have had plenty opportunity to feed into that.

Train brag

To help inform the process, VisitScotland published its annual horizon-scanning exercise, and it's worth a look. That's after taking account of the humongous challenge facing the sector from coronavirus.

Even if the path of the infection's spread had followed that of SARS in 2003, it would cost the airline industry in and around China more than £20bn, according to the aviation body IATA. A sharp hit back then was followed later in the year by a sharp recovery.

Covid-19, to use the virus' Sunday name, has already gone beyond that SARS stage, and it is the ubiquity of international travel that is facilitator of its rapid spread. An invisible bug could knock the other trends far over the horizon once more, or it could exacerbate them.

Take climate change for a starter. It's either a business and growth opportunity or it's a powerful brake.

Scotland has a lot of natural beauty to offer those who boosted searches for "eco-friendly travel" by 73% on Pinterest last year. Having just been to India, I'm particularly conscious of the bracing air of the North Atlantic when compared with the air pollution choking so many city dwellers elsewhere.

Indeed, providing an antidote to the rise of the mega-city and the pressures of "always on" lifestyles is one of the "mega-drivers" identified by VisitScotland's intell department.

That's if the industry can get beyond the obstacle of polluting aircraft for its more distant target customers. Anecdotally, I'm hearing from a growing number of baby boomers whose millennial and Gen Z offspring disapprove of the parental flying addiction.

The prospect of travelling solo is inspiring a younger generation of tourists

"Flight shame" is a real threat to the industry, unless its future is to be based on staycationers - drawing people north to Scotland who would be flying to somewhere sunnier if they felt they could. Airlines and airport operators are keen to persuade you how much they're doing to cut carbon emissions, in ground transport and increasingly efficient aero-engines.

Swedes translate flight shame as "flygskom", and the land of Greta Thunberg also has a word for the flip side of that: Tågskryt is, we're told, the "train brag" of those whose Instagram picture shows how much fun they're having by rail. The longer time required for reaching the destination by land and sea becomes more a part of the experience.

Silver nomad

And experiences are big, the more Instagrammable the better. The research says travellers are looking for something authentic, local and unique. And tasty: gastronomy is a driver of European destination by 55% of those surveyed by the European Travel Commission.

Reviewing the food, the hostel or the bungee jump is another part of the travel package, which infuriates some in the industry on the wrong side of reviews, but can also be a cheapish way of marketing and catapulting a destination to the top of the online search results.

If you're smart and want a young clientele, work with an influencer. Euromonitor travel data consultancy has noted travel influencers are having an impact in newer markets such as Nigeria.

There's risk of over-organising in advance, say the horizon scanners. You can now book so much online that "pre-crastination" leaves you without the flexibility to stop, delay, divert and smell the flowers.

If you're a solivagant, it's of particular value to leave your itinerary with the space to adjust to chance encounters. That means that you're in the growing category of lone travellers - both young and "silver nomads".

Sometimes, they form loose groups, which change as they move on. Instead of human company, some prefer the company of their pets (the hound pound already being established as a "thing" in travel industry dynamics).

Instagram reviewing, from bungee jumps to street food, has become part of the holiday package

Alone or not, younger travellers are responding to the reality or perception of "over-tourism" to visit away from the conventional season. Anyone familiar with Edinburgh's Royal Mile will have seen that developing for years.

And of course, the breakneck speed of technological innovation is a perpetual challenge and opportunity. Some travellers pay with a credit card - in Sweden, its doconomy - that tots up carbon impact as well as cost, and give you a monthly reckoning in both kroner and kilos of carbon dioxide.

There's an app for that: Eurostar has one also for passengers with autism, to prepare them through every part of the journey and to steer them to quieter journey times.

Another, again from Scandinavia, calculates the impact of travel options and converts them into recognisable impact: in its travel trends for 2020, Euromonitor cites the example of a trip from Stockholm to the south of France for four nights in a standard hotel. The cost: 64 kg per person, or 1.9 square metres of Arctic ice melt.

Crime fiction

Innovators in such an industry are often seen as the start-up disruptor, doing what no-one else had thought of.

But we're reminded by VisitScotland that it can be big old travels operators who are just as capable of disrupting the business model they've long thrived on.

As examples, they suggest established restaurants running vegan week-nights, to develop a new clientele.

Or guest houses can run events for interest groups to get together. Cycling and rambling are the obvious ones, though it could be more niche - from philately to tree-hugging to crime fiction.

And a conventional travel operator like Virgin claims that it continues to disrupt and innovate, most recently in launching its own cruise line.

I, for one, will take a lot of persuading that cruise liners are environmentally friendly, but the irrepressible Sir Richard Branson is going to give it a try.