Coronavirus 'in Scotland earlier than thought'
- Published
Coronavirus may have been spreading in Scotland before the first cases were confirmed at the start of March, the chief medical officer has said.
Dr Gregor Smith said scientists had identified early cases of the virus which had no clear link to travel.
He said this suggested that coronavirus was likely to have been spreading in the community in February.
But he stressed that these cases were likely to have been "very few in number".
Dr Smith cited "cutting edge" research from scientists at the University of Glasgow, external, which has found at least 113 separate introductions of Covid-19 to Scotland.
These cases were mainly brought from European countries such as Italy, Spain and Austria and were ultimately responsible for the rapid spread of the virus across the country.
The researchers have used subtle molecular differences in the virus from people who have been infected to effectively create "family trees" for the virus so it can be tracked in time and place.
The first confirmed case of Covid-19 in Scotland was announced on 1 March, when a patient was diagnosed after returning home to Tayside from Italy.
The first case of community transmission - an infection not linked to overseas travel - was detected on 11 March, with Scotland's first confirmed death being recorded two days later.
The research concluded that an earlier lockdown from countries with a high number of cases, such as Italy, and a quarantine of travellers from high risk areas might have prevented the escalation of the outbreak.
Dr Smith said the number of cases in Scotland before March was likely to have been very small
Dr Smith said: "The use of this next generation sequencing technology has allowed us to identify at least 112 separate introductions of Covid-19 across Scotland that ultimately led to sustained community transmission.
"It has identified viral lineages with no clear link to travel at the very early stages of the outbreak in Scotland, suggesting that there may have been earlier introduction to Scotland and community spread even before the first cases emerged.
"In this respect, the emergence of continental Europe as the global epicentre of the epidemic appears to have been the main source of the particular lineages that have established in Scotland."
Dr Smith also said the research had suggested that an outbreak of the virus at a Nike conference in Edinburgh at the end of February had been successfully contained.
He added: "This particular sub lineage of the virus has not been detected in Scotland since towards the end of March.
"This suggests that the actions taken to manage this outbreak were successful in containing spread and have led to the eradication of this particular viral lineage, with no evidence of any wider outbreak associated with it in Scotland since that time."
25 cases of coronavirus were linked to a Nike conference in the Hilton Carlton Hotel at the end of February
Details of the outbreak at the Nike conference in the Hilton Carlton Hotel were first revealed in a BBC Scotland Disclosure documentary.
The investigation discovered that one of the 70 Nike employees from across the world who attended the conference on 26 and 27 February already had the virus.
This person infected many of their fellow delegates. Of the 25 confirmed cases linked to the event, eight were residents of Scotland.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that while the research showed cases could have been imported to Scotland in February, "none of the broader evidence" she had examined suggested there had been a "spike" of deaths at the time.
Ms Sturgeon was speaking as she confirmed that seven people have died in the past 24 hours after testing positive for coronavirus.
They are the first deaths to have been recorded by this measure for three days.
The first minister also announced that she would be setting up an expert group to study the effects of Covid-19 on ethnic minority communities in Scotland.
She said Public Health Scotland's preliminary analysis does not appear to show people from ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by Covid-19 in terms of the impact on their health.
But she said findings in other parts of the UK have been different.
The first minister said people from BAME backgrounds could also be disproportionately affected by the social and economic impact of coronavirus.