What's Boris Johnson worried about in Scotland?
- Published
Boris Johnson became prime minister exactly one year ago
Boris Johnson must have found recent opinion polls conducted in Scotland to be awkward reading.
Surveys suggesting rising support for Scottish independence and a significant gap between his approval ratings and those of Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, appear to have prompted him to make his first visit to Scotland since last year's general election.
The prime minister wants to use the trip to remind people in Scotland just how much cash the UK treasury has spent in response to the coronavirus crisis.
He is stressing that it is the Westminster government that has supported 900,000 people who might have otherwise lost their jobs and produced billions of pounds in extra spending for the NHS.
The SNP don't look too worried about a prime ministerial trip denting support for their cause.
On her 50th birthday, on Sunday, Nicola Sturgeon tweeted, external that a visit from Boris was the best birthday pressie she could hope for.
Every time the PM tells voters that it is only as part of the UK that Scottish businesses and public services could afford to cope with the pandemic, the SNP will reply that they are sick of being told that Scotland is "too wee, too poor and too stupid" to be independent.
Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon will not be meeting the prime minister during his visit
It's a line from the 2014 referendum that seems to have developed extra resonance at a time when people seem to have far more confidence in Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the crisis than Boris Johnson's.
Rising support for the uncertain path of independence is not what you might expect at a time of deep economic uncertainty.
Opinion polls have been suggesting more people in Scotland have been turning towards "Yes" for many months.
Long before the coronavirus crisis, Brexit was driving Remain voters in to the nationalist camp.
It will take more than arguments about the deep pockets of the UK exchequer to win back hearts and minds in Scotland.
Which is why that the PM says that the UK is more than "simply a lifeboat to which our four nations can cling in times of peril".
The emotional case for keeping the UK united is something government ministers will need to work on if they are planning many more Scottish visits.
Boris Johnson has clearly stated that he will not allow another Scottish referendum.
And the Scottish government would need agreement from Westminster to make the process legally watertight.
So what is the PM worrying about?
Well, he may find it much harder to refuse another independence vote if the SNP win a majority in the Scottish elections due in May 2021. And the same polls that are suggesting growing support for independence are predicting a very good result for Nicola Sturgeon's party next year.