Deaths in Scotland exceed births by 16,000 in past year

The number of babies born in Scotland in the final quarter of 2022 was below the five-year average

There were almost 16,000 more deaths than births registered in Scotland in 2022, according to a new report.

Provisional National Records of Scotland (NRS) figures show there were 62,942 deaths and 46,959 births last year.

There were 16,856 deaths between October and December - 9.3% more than the five-year average for that quarter.

NRS warned the country's population will fall without a change in other factors, such as migration.

• Scotland's population projected to peak in 2028

• Scotland's population forecast to go into decline

During the final quarter of 2022 there were increases in the number of deaths across a range of causes, including respiratory diseases which were 8.7% higher at 1,900.

In the previous quarter, the total number of deaths was 10% above average.

Covid-19 was the underlying cause of 353 deaths during the latest quarter. No deaths were registered where the underlying cause was adverse effects of a Covid-19 vaccine.

The number of deaths from cancer was 1.3% higher than the five-year average. Deaths from coronary heart disease (4.5%) and dementia and Alzheimer's (3.1%) were also above average.

'Negative natural change'

There were 11,899 births registered in Scotland in this period, which is 4.9% fewer than the five-year rate. The total has been on a downward trend since 2008, when it was 14,540.

The number of stillbirths, 44, was 4.3% lower than the quarter four average and the number of infant deaths, 42, was 3.7% below average.

Julie Ramsay, vital events statistician at National Records of Scotland, said: "The gap between deaths and births continues the period of negative natural change, where the number of deaths outnumbers the number of births, which began in 2015.

"Having fewer births than deaths in a population is referred to as 'negative natural change' meaning that without external factors such as migration, the population will fall."

Scotland has an ageing population

The NRS report - Births, Deaths and other Vital Events Quarter 4 - also shows 6,370 couples married in Scotland, nearly 3% more than the recent average.

There were also 169 civil partnerships, 141 of which were for mixed-sex couples. There number of same-sex civil partnerships, 28, is above the five-year average of 20.

NRS predicted last year that Scotland's population will peak in 2028 at 5.48 million and then fall by 1.8% by 2045.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) has also forecast a decrease of up to 900,000 over the next 50 years.

An ageing population, declining birth rate and decrease in migration have been cited as contributing factors.