Lloyds TSB reports uncertainty in Scottish house market

Lloyds TSB Scotland analysts said there would be little prospect of significant price gain

House prices in Scotland demonstrated continued market uncertainty over the past three months, according to the latest survey from Lloyds TSB Scotland.

It suggested that prices had risen nearly 5%, comparing the last 12 months year with the previous 12 months.

But the number of transactions remained low, at half of pre-recession levels.

There had been particular volatility over the past six months, with a fall in summer, followed by a similar scale of rise in the three months to October.

The pattern from the bank's survey shows that Scottish house prices peaked in 2008 and fell for four consecutive quarters after that.

They now appear to be at 96% of the peak they reached 27 months ago.

The figures from Aberdeen suggested prices had returned to a point closer to that peak level, remaining the highest average price of any city or region in the country.

At £224,000, the average Aberdeen price was £13,000 ahead of Edinburgh, with the average Scottish home price at £165,000.

Dundee has had a particularly volatile price, according to Lloyds TSB Scotland, though it said that might be explained by a very low number of transactions.

Recession adjustment

There has also been volatility in the north-east, excluding Aberdeen city, which was down by 13% in the quarter to July and up by 21% in the most recent quarter.

The survey of property sales suggested the biggest price increases have been among the higher priced homes, with detached houses up by 6% in a year, and the biggest increase in the most recent quarter.

Flats saw a decline of more than 4% in the quarter and a rise of 1.9% on the year.

Lloyds TSB Scotland analysts suggested the Scottish housing market had adjusted to the recession and added that there was "little prospect of significant house price gain in the immediate future".