Scottish economy 'could regain lost ground in two years'
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A new report has suggested that Scotland's economy could regain all ground lost in 2020 as a result of the pandemic within the next two years.
KPMG is also forecasting the recovery could outpace the UK-wide average.
Recent official data, external estimated Scotland's economy took a 9.6% hit last year.
But KPMG analysis suggests the economy could bounce back with a successful vaccine rollout and a potential post-restrictions "consumer bounce".
Its "best case" scenario suggests that could result in Scotland seeing annual GDP growth in 2021 of up to 5.5%, and up to 5.8% in 2022.
That compares with its forecast for the UK as a whole of 4.6% this year and 5.6% in 2022.
However, KPMG said there remained concerns that unemployment could rise "significantly" towards the end of 2021, driven by the long-term effects of Brexit and the winding down of government support measures such as furlough schemes.
It also warned that any long-term growth for industries such as hospitality and retail, which have been hit hard by the pandemic, could come too late.
Recent retail industry data suggested the sector witnessed only modest improvements in sales between January and February, with year-on-year takings down by more than 24%.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Licensed Trade Association has cautioned that more than 10% of the workforce is likely to be lost this year in Scotland's bar, restaurant and licensed venue industry.
Last year, KPMG warned of a potential "two-speed" recovery, with some regions of Scotland suffering far harder than others.
But it said it had since become clearer that there was now "less of a geographical division and more of a sector-by-sector imbalance".
Covid 'devastation'
Catherine Burnet, from KPMG, said: "While the country's already flourishing tech, biotech and medical industries have continued to grow and attract international investment, there's no escaping from the devastation that Covid has created in hospitality, retail and travel and tourism."
She added: "Our latest economic forecasting undoubtedly offers some optimism, but with a big slice of caution.
"While it's reassuring to see that GDP could be completely back to pre-Covid levels of growth within two years, the figures don't account for the many jobs and valued businesses that may be lost forever as the pandemic rumbles on."
GMB Scotland secretary Gary Smith said: "It's a concern when forecasts for Scotland's economic future factor a green recovery that doesn't exist and for which there is no plan whatsoever.
"Scotland has one of the biggest offshore wind sectors in the world but almost no jobs in the manufacturing and fabrication that supports it, we export those green jobs to the rest of the world."
He added: "In our biggest city Glasgow, which will host COP26, we have an environmental crisis in cleansing and refuse, but instead of investing in more jobs to tackle it the council signed off another cuts budget.
"Optimism isn't warranted when you look at what's actually happening, and without a proper jobs plan and investment strategy the outcome won't be recovery, it will be failure."