Scottish Fiscal Commission to get forecasting role

Mr Swinney confirmed to the finance committee that the commission would have a forecasting role after all

The Scottish Fiscal Commission is to carry out forecasts of Scotland's tax revenues and GDP when new financial powers are devolved.

Holyrood's finance committee had asked for the independent body to produce official forecasts, but voted down their own proposals under pressure from Finance Secretary John Swinney.

Mr Swinney has confirmed the commission will now have this role after all.

The provision is part of the fiscal framework deal agreed on Tuesday.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) was announced in the wake of the Smith Commission recommendations for further Scottish devolution.

Holyrood is considering a bill laying out the exact role and responsibilities of the commission.

The Smith agreement was also key in the drawing up of the Scotland Bill and the negotiations for a fiscal framework to support the new powers contained in it.

'Substantial widening'

The finance committee initially produced a report calling for a "substantial widening" of the commission's role, including producing official forecasts on devolved taxes and assessing the sustainability of public finances.

However, when committee member Gavin Brown tabled amendments to this end, they were narrowly voted down.

Convener Kenneth Gibson and his SNP colleagues Mark McDonald and John Mason voted alongside independent MSP Jean Urquhart to reject the amendments after hearing Mr Swinney say they could "give rise to significant duplication" or even threaten the commission's independence.

Mr Brown described this reversing of positions as "a poor day for parliament, a disastrous day for the finance committee and bad news for the scrutiny of Scotland's finances", while Labour member Jackie Baillie said it was "genuinely disappointing".

MSPs on the finance committee voted by four to three to reject amendments to strengthen the role of the SFC

The UK government then asked for the SFC to be given a forecasting role as part of the compromise agreement on the fiscal framework underpinning new devolved powers.

Mr Swinney confirmed to the committee while giving evidence on the wider deal that he would now be drawing up his own amendments to let the SFC carry out forecasts.

He said: "The key issue I've agreed with the Treasury is that forecasts of tax revenues and GDP must be undertaken by an independent body, and that will be the focus of my attention in drafting the amendments.

"I'm not at all keen to reconstruct the fiscal commission, as it is operating independently, but the very precise agreement we've arrived at is in relation to the issue of forecasting."