The best and worst of times?
- Published
If you happen to be at the SNP conference in Glasgow, take a wee wander by the splendid BBC stand in the exhibition area. There are all sorts of delights on offer, not least the book quiz.
You have to identify quotes from various literary works - including a Tale of Two Cities by Dickens, the fine novel which begins: "It was the best of times. It was the worst of times."
For SNP delegates, it's prophetic stuff. The bold Charles, himself a doughty political journalist, might have been talking about the conundrum currently confronting the Scottish National Party.
Brexit, many in the party argue, presents them with an ideal opportunity to call indyref2: to hold an early rerun of the 2014 independence referendum. It is, say advocates of such a move, an obvious trigger.
Hang on, say others. It may be a trigger for holding a referendum - but is it a button which pushes up the number of Yes votes, to secure a majority for independence?
This dilemma was openly debated by the party at the conference late this afternoon: itself a welcome development. I will not say the party was split or divided. That might imply rancour - and there was none (except when the chair dealt perhaps just a little abruptly with points of order from decidedly senior members.)
No, the debate was dignified, decent and comradely. But there were clear differences of opinion on strategy.
To be clear, there is absolutely no division whatsoever about the ultimate objective. The SNP - and this may shock some of you - wants independence. Members yearn for it. As noted here yesterday, a decidedly limited announcement by Nicola Sturgeon about a draft referendum bill drew rapturous applause.
But they are uncertain about the strategy to pursue. To be fair, that uncertainty extends to the leader herself, to Nicola Sturgeon. (See umpteen earlier posts here, including yesterday.)
Questions, questions, questions
However, today's debate teased out a little more regarding the dilemma. Some argued - as Ms Sturgeon did in a webcast interview with me - that the UK on offer at the referendum in 2014 no longer exists, given the Brexit vote.
That argument featured in the debate today. Some said that meant the pro-Union campaign in 2014 was a "con": that the people of Scotland would now see through that alleged deception and opt for independence.
Others argued that the Brexit vote had disclosed the true nature of the Conservatives - which they depicted as xenophobic. "Theresa May's little England", Alex Salmond called it earlier. Scotland, it was argued, would resile from such opinions - and head for independence.
But there were counter views. Some counselled caution. What if, they argued, another referendum is called? What if it were to be lost? The damage to the Nationalist cause would be substantial, perhaps acute.
Then that issue of a trigger. What about those who voted Yes to independence in 2014 - but opted to Leave the EU this year? Confronted with a choice between Scotland in the UK or Scotland (without England) in the EU, how would they vote?
Reflecting on the competing advice she receives, Ms Sturgeon noted wryly: "Welcome to my world." Indeed. Welcome to post Brexit politics. Rarely pure and never simple.
- Published14 October 2016
- Published13 October 2016