Subdued anticipation at the SNP conference

Party conferences are curious affairs, collective by definition yet frequently singular in nature. They have an intensity all their own, perhaps even more so than in parliamentary debate where fundamentally different standpoints are always readily available.

An issue which can seem crucially important in the conference hall and even more so on the fringe tends to evaporate when confronted with the air outside.

This present SNP conference in Aberdeen is of the genre. Perhaps, indeed, the surreal content is amplified by the strange days surrounding us.

There is the venue for one thing, commodious and welcoming but decidedly remote, far from the city centre and hard by the sea, with an intriguing view of offshore wind turbines and moored supply vessels.

Then the surrounding tempora and mores. Brexit, with increasingly bizarre manoeuvring inside the Westminster bubble, viewed with puzzlement by 27 other EU nations, once the comments have been rendered into the 24 official languages of the Union.

One wonders whether Boris Johnson's random comments, obtained by subterfuge or otherwise, tended to lose or gain in translation.

Self-evidently, this atmosphere permeates the Aberdeen conference. Not, to be clear, that there is a gloomy outlook here among the delegates. Very far from it.

They read a poll suggesting that their party's vote is up, even after more than a decade in devolved power. They spot another survey indicating that the uncertainties of Brexit may be tempting more Scots into considering independence an asset to the economy (albeit without, at this stage, a concomitant marked increase in overall support for independence).

They notice too, with enthusiasm, the BBC survey which reflected the concept that people in Scotland may be more inclined than their counterparts south of the Border to believe that the best days lie in the future.

They clock all these elements. They count the considerable number of feet marching in support of independence, cajoled by grassroots movements, not the SNP.

They notice. They observe. And they wonder. Could something be happening, they ask each other? With subdued anticipation.

Subdued? I refer my Honourable readers to the comments I offered earlier. Yes, they yearn for independence. But they know there remains a considerable job to be done to convince their fellow Scots to share that enthusiasm, to shed their doubts.

Most folk I have talked to here in Aberdeen get the concept. They want independence. The day after tomorrow, if possible. But they appreciate the obstacles which lie in the path of Nicola Sturgeon in calling the necessary referendum and, even more, in winning the ballot.

Firstly, there is Brexit. Yes, it may be said to create the conditions for indyref2, because people in Scotland are, arguably, being removed from the EU against their declared will.

But, as I have argued umpteen times, the independence offer in Scotland is predicated upon confidence. Brexit undermines confidence, tending to challenge the very prospect it creates.

Nicola Sturgeon is bringing the curtain down on the conference on Saturday

There is another element to this. For all there are people who are impelled towards independence by Brexit, there are voters shifted in the opposite direction. They dislike the EU and consequently dislike the notion of an independent Scotland embracing Brussels anew.

Then there is the economy. The SNP has just published its growth commission report, attended by inevitable controversy.

Not that you would know from this particular event in Aberdeen. There has been no direct debate at this conference.

The issue was raised on the fringe, with objections to the package voiced by former MP George Kerevan. Conference speakers have referred to the content with approbation. But nothing thus far in terms of a full debate.

To be fair, though, the new deputy leader Keith Brown, to whom congratulations, intends to convene three National Assemblies over the summer on each of the chapters in the report. He plans further to engage with civic Scotland, the wider Yes movement, business and unions.

All of which, it is fair to suggest, will take time. All of which adds to the impression that Nicola Sturgeon is unlikely to rush to polling.

George Kerevan voiced some doubts about the growth commission's recommendations

Some here in Aberdeen are unhappy at the way the report was handled. One or two feel they might have been a little more inclined to defend the content against external attack, had they been more involved in its formulation.

These are natural instincts, which I understand. However, perhaps they partly miss the purpose of the exercise.

The growth commission is not an SNP policy paper. It is not designed to square competing interests within the party, to paper over cracks.

It is almost exclusively aimed at external interests. It is intended to show that the SNP has listened to concerns which were raised in 2014 - the economy, deficit and debt, the currency - and has responded. Has at least heeded those worries.

It is designed to placate the sceptics, not to enthuse the faithful. That is why Mr Brown will consult widely, well beyond the party membership.

'Now is not the time'

Then, finally, on the referendum, there is the point that the timing is not solely in Ms Sturgeon's hands. She accepts that indyref2 would require a further Section 30 transfer of temporary power, as happened prior to the 2014 plebiscite.

Right now, it seems all but certain that the Prime Minister would refuse such a request. She would say, as she did previously, that the time is not right, that dousing Brexit disquiet must take precedence, gently sidestepping the source of that disquiet in the first place.

All of which, again, points to a longer timetable for any putative referendum. Will the party be patient? Mostly, I think, they will.

For now, they will prepare, they will debate, they will march, they will evangelise. They will wait. And they will hope.