Indyref2 and the direction of travel

Outside, enthusiastic demonstrators accompanied by sundry dogs urged support for independence. Inside, Nicola Sturgeon had, of course, no qualms about endorsing that particular constitutional direction for Scotland.

But the first minister faced more precise questioning from Patrick Harvie of the Greens. Would she be offering her thoughts soon on the topic of an independence referendum?

She would and explained why.

Mr Harvie asked, further, whether she would issue that thinking regardless of whether Brexit was prolonged by the postponement of the scheduled departure date of 29 March, by the extension of Article 50.

Precise demand

Ms Sturgeon rose to reply: "Yes." Then half sat down before pausing. Perhaps, on reflection, she felt that single word response was a mite abrupt.

So she continued, noting that she rather liked talking about such matters. As, of course, do her party.

To be clear, Ms Sturgeon did not announce a referendum today, nor did she issue a precise demand for such a plebiscite.

Nicola Sturgeon said it was essential that the people of Scotland be offered an alternative to the "chaos of Brexit".

But she signalled fairly strongly that such may be her direction of travel. She said it was "essential" that the people of Scotland be offered an alternative to what she characterised as the "chaos of Brexit".

As is the way of Holyrood, I discussed these matters with various MSPs. Firstly, it might be worth recording the public opinion of Jackson Carlaw, the interim leader of the Scottish Conservatives.

Remember that the power to sanction a referendum lies with Westminster because the constitution was reserved as an issue in the founding Scotland Act.

'Not the time'

Mr Carlaw noted that both the prime minister and the Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson had said "now is not the time" to hold a further referendum on independence.

Those views, he said, had not changed. The notion of indyref2 at the moment was ridiculous. There was "no way" it should be pursued as an objective.

Then the privately expressed views of senior SNP figures. One suggested to me that the first minister's comments were at least partly designed to distract her party from the controversy over her talks with Alex Salmond while he was facing a civil service inquiry into complaints of sexual misconduct. Complaints he denies.

Alex Salmond denies claims of sexual misconduct against him

Incidentally, on that topic, both Jackson Carlaw for the Tories and Richard Leonard for Labour asked the FM about the sundry Salmond-linked inquiries today.

Ms Sturgeon responded, forcefully, that she had done nothing wrong but that various inquiries had now been set up and it might be thought useful to allow them to do their work.

Back to indyref2. Another senior SNP MSP argued that thinking over indyref2 was viscerally linked to Brexit.

Jumped the gun

My interlocutor said that indyref2 would be more difficult to prosecute should the prime minister move in the SNP direction over Brexit, for example by sanctioning a customs union and close trading links.

It was further suggested to me that this was decidedly unlikely to happen. Thus, arguably, it would be right to propose indyref2 now. The previous demand had jumped the gun.

What about the point, I queried, that it might be difficult to advance the case of independence amid the tumult and turmoil of Brexit? Were people not fretting enough?

My interlocutor conceded that was a substantive issue. That it was a real dilemma for the SNP and the FM.

Equally, though, it could now be clearly demonstrated that Brexit was proving problematic, damaging to the economy and directly counter to the promises on Europe made in 2014, during the first independence referendum.

What, I inquired, if the PM said no to the demand for an early independence referendum? Both my sources said that it would then become a tactical issue for the SNP to pursue, perhaps up to and through the next Holyrood election.

Which is where we are now. To be clear, Nicola Sturgeon always said that she would comment further on independence when there was "clarity" over Brexit.

She now appears to believe that such clarity is approaching - although she would argue that it is the clarity of chaos which lies in front of our eyes.