Turning up the volume on the independence debate

With all the turmoil in Downing Street over the partygate scandal, it's easy to forget that there is much, much more going on in our politics.

Among the biggies: Covid recovery, the threat of armed conflict in Ukraine and painful cost of living pressures driven by rising energy prices.

The ongoing constitutional tensions in the UK following our departure from the EU are also worth attention.

In the past week, frustration with post-Brexit arrangements in Northern Ireland prompted the first minister to quit and another DUP minister to order a halt to Irish Sea border checks.

The governments in Scotland and Wales accused the UK of threatening to undermine their powers with a Brexit freedoms bill to cutback the EU laws still being used in the UK.

At Holyrood, there was also a reminder that Nicola Sturgeon is preparing to "resume in earnest" the campaign for Scottish independence this spring.

UK government resistance

When an SNP backbencher asked for an indyref2 update, the first minister confirmed "preparatory work is under way" to enable a referendum before the end of 2023.

She told the BBC last month that a decision on the timetable for a referendum bill would be taken in the coming weeks.

What she has not said is how either this process or the undoubted passions within the independence movement can overcome resistance from the UK government.

Even if Boris Johnson is replaced as prime minister, it is not clear that any potential successor would readily agree to a referendum despite there being a Holyrood majority in favour.

Her hope, I suppose, is that UK opposition increases support for a referendum and for independence itself - to a level that becomes irresistible. That remains to be seen.

What seems clearer is that if UK consent was forthcoming or if the courts decided a Holyrood-only referendum was legal, the "yes" side's prospectus is far from ready.

It is not simply a case of dusting down the Scottish government white paper from the 2014 campaign. Much has changed since then.

What would happen at the border if an independent Scotland re-joined the EU?

Firstly, Brexit means an independent Scotland re-joining the EU would have to manage a trade border with England - a new complexity explored this month by academics for UK in a changing Europe.

Secondly, the SNP has adopted a new currency policy after the UK government rejected its proposal to share the pound in a currency union in 2014.

It now proposes to continue using the pound, without formal consent if necessary, and to switch to a new Scottish currency as soon as practicable.

It would also seek to negotiate entry to the EU which would require an independent Scotland to sign up, at least in principle, to joining the Euro.

All of that is harder to explain than simply keeping the pound but the lesson the SNP has learned is not to give the UK a veto over its policies. Or have they?

'Obligation' to Scottish pensioners

Thirdly, there is a developing row over the payment of the state pension in an independent Scotland that suggests otherwise.

In 2014, the Scottish government offered a straightforward reassurance that "the responsibility for the payment of that pension will transfer to the Scottish government".

Now the SNP's Ian Blackford argues that the UK government has a financial "obligation" to Scottish pensioners who have paid UK national insurance that would continue after independence.

The UK pensions minister Steve Webb acknowledged as much in oral evidence to a parliamentary committee back in 2014 before appearing to backtrack in a written clarification.

The current UK pensions minister, Guy Opperman, has accused the SNP of "misleading" the public.

He told the Mail on Sunday that "working English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers should not pay for a foreign country's pension liabilities".

Nicola Sturgeon has suggested this would all get sorted in independence negotiations but before then it could become a major flashpoint in any referendum campaign.

Who will pay Scotland's pensions if the country becomes independent?

On pensions, currency, borders and a myriad of other issues the Scottish government has work to do.

It has tasked a small team of civil servants to search for as much clarity as possible in the preparation of a new independence prospectus.

To the "yes" side this is about offering an alternative to what they see as a discredited and dysfunctional UK government.

To the "no" side it's a waste of time and money when Scottish public services and the economy are under strain after two years of Covid.

Skirmishes over independence are a reminder that however muted debate on Scotland's constitutional future has been during the pandemic, it has not gone away.

As we move towards spring and local elections in May, advocates of independence and the union are likely to turn up the volume as they compete with partygate, President Putin and price rises for our attention.