SNP conference: A calm event amid stormy times
- Published
Most SNP delegates do believe that "independence is coming". But when?
After the febrile atmosphere of the Conservative and Labour conferences, perhaps the SNP's gathering in Aberdeen was always going to feel like a drama-free affair.
But it still feels like a remarkably calm event amid stormy political seas.
There are no vicious anonymous briefings; no political grenades being hurled by disgruntled grandees at fringe events; no plots being hatched at the bar.
This is in part because Nicola Sturgeon is in total, uncontested control of her party.
Any internal critics left to join the Alba Party under Alex Salmond, and there are no alternative leaders agitating in the wings.
Indeed the only person who has made any trouble for Ms Sturgeon at this conference has been herself, with eyebrows raised over an interview where she somewhat bluntly said "I detest the Tories".
It's also a reflection of the fact the first minister has already set out her plans and indeed her backup plans - A, B and C - for independence.
In brief, the first remains to win an agreement with the UK government for a "gold standard" deal like the one which underpinned the 2014 vote.
The second is to set up a referendum without Westminster's backing, with the Supreme Court set to deliberate on whether MSPs can legislate for one.
And should UK ministers continue to stonewall and the court throw out the Scottish government's case, plan C is for the SNP to fight the next general election on a single-issue ticket, hoping to trigger independence negotiations by amassing more than 50% of the vote.
This feast of plans caters for almost every element of the party's membership, from those who back a cautious approach to the more gung-ho. More or less whatever they want, Ms Sturgeon has committed to it at some point.
The "de facto referendum" plan could even soothe some in the wider independence movement who called for such an approach previously - only to see Ms Sturgeon dismiss it, at the time, as a unionist trap.
So in some ways, there is less pressure on Ms Sturgeon at this conference than in previous years.
Particularly given the Supreme Court case starts 18 hours after her speech ends, there is no expectation on her to come up with fresh red meat. It also means she can push knotty questions about future elements of the plan down the road.
The Supreme Court case will be heard next week
Where there will be acute pressure, of course, is in the delivery of these plans.
And whether members think the referendum will happen as planned is a complicated question.
There is total belief in Ms Sturgeon as the party's figurehead, and a sense of confidence that she is leading the party in the right direction.
But in all honesty, this doesn't feel like the gathering of a party that's a year away from a referendum.
OK, there are still queues out the door of the more popular fringe events. The party merchandise stall is doing a fine trade in branded tea towels, T-shirts and tote bags.
There's a gigantic screen displaying a rolling list of the SNP's achievements, from recent rent freeze legislation to big infrastructure legacies like the Queensferry Crossing and the Aberdeen bypass.
And yes, there is someone outside the front door dressed as a dinosaur, protesting against gender recognition reforms.
There's all of the grand scale that has accompanied SNP conferences since the party's membership ballooned post-referendum.
What there is not, however, is a palpable feeling of urgency.
The cavernous size of the venue may not help - even a big crowd can look small inside an aircraft hanger.
There is plenty of buzz around the coffee shop and in the hotel bars surrounding the venue, but such energy dissipates easily in the enormous halls in between.
This is not to say there is torpor, or any kind of despondency. Quite the opposite - this is a confident party, comfortable with its continued dominance of Scottish politics.
There is a sense that history is edging in their direction, even if there are considerable hurdles standing in the way of Ms Sturgeon's strategy.
When the UK government is mired in chaos, SNP members are confident that can be used to build support for independence.
And the leadership is keen to keep them focused on the long-term project of winning round the country as a whole.
"Don't ask when the campaign is starting," party President Mike Russell told delegates. "We are the campaign…it's what we're here for."
It remains unclear, though, when that campaign might come to a climax.