Rutherglen and Hamilton West: Centre of a political storm, barometer of the nation
- Published
The constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West has been at the centre of a political storm for some time.
The starting gun on this by-election was officially fired in August, when Margaret Ferrier was forced out as the MP by a recall petition.
But many felt a vote had seemed inevitable since September 2020.
That's when Ms Ferrier's political fate was effectively sealed after she took a train from London to Glasgow despite testing positive for Covid.
From a political point of view, the by-election on Thursday, 5 October makes for a great Scottish appetiser in advance of a looming general election.
There will be 14 candidates on the ballot paper, but political commentators see this as a battle between the SNP and Labour.
It is an interesting place to watch them fight it out: this is a constituency that's bounced between the two parties at every election since 2015.
One Scottish Labour politician told me that Rutherglen and Hamilton West is exactly the kind of area the party hopes to turn red as they push to get Sir Keir Starmer into Downing Street. It's one of many central belt, former Labour strongholds where the SNP has had success in recent years.
For the SNP meanwhile, it's the most significant electoral test Humza Yousaf has faced as leader.
Both parties have thrown a lot at this contest, with door-knocking and campaigning events taking place most days since the by-election became official.
Labour's candidate, secondary teacher Michael Shanks, wants to swap the classroom for the Commons.
He's been joined on the campaign trail by plenty of big Labour names. Sir Keir Starmer has made numerous visits, as have other UK Labour frontbenchers. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown was in the seat last week.
A few policy divisions between the UK party and Scottish Labour have been highlighted - such as on the two-child benefit cap - but broadly speaking officials seem happy with the campaign.
Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice has indicated that Labour has to win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West if it hopes to form a majority UK government in the near future.
Jeremy Corbyn managed to turn it red in 2017, and he still failed to make it to Number 10.
The SNP have also brought out their big hitters, with Humza Yousaf and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn numerous visits to support their candidate, local councillor Katy Loudon.
Though Nicola Sturgeon is one significant SNP figure who hasn't popped up in the constituency.
The independence message has been present, but the party has focussed more on the cost of living in the run-up to polling day.
Sir Keir Starmer's refusal to abolish the two-child limit on some benefits was seized upon as a campaign message for the SNP, who looked to paint Labour as no different from the Conservatives.
Both parties are claiming that they can ease household financial pressures, and they seem content to fight this by-election on that territory.
Though this is fundamentally an SNP v Labour fight, the other parties could play an important role.
The Scottish Greens are standing here for the first time. Their argument is that even though they're in government with the SNP in Scotland, they can be a distinct voice at Westminster, opposing Nato membership and calling for radical environmental action.
The SNP will be aware that the Greens could mop up some pro-independence votes.
The Scottish Conservatives insist they're focused on the "real priorities" of voters, while the Scottish Liberal Democrats say they can address problems with personal finances and the NHS.
The enthusiasm the parties have shown for this by-election perhaps hasn't been matched by the voters.
Bear in mind that this constituency has been under the political microscope since Margaret Ferrier's controversial train journey in 2020. There does appear to be some campaign weariness.
Many residents will be happy when the media glare lifts, and they're once again able to walk down Rutherglen high street without having to dodge inquisitive reporters.
Though some may be tired of the political circus, that doesn't mean they think the by-election is irrelevant.
It is an unsettling time for many in this constituency, including businesses, community groups, and individual voters.
The cost of living is the dominant issue here. And the NHS and other public services are often raised by voters.
There are prosperous patches in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, but also areas of significant deprivation, and some are worried about what the future holds.
A new MP - of any party colour - won't solve these problems overnight.
The result of this vote is more likely to provide us with a snapshot of how the parties in Scotland are performing, while speculation about the timing of the next general election rumbles on.
That UK-wide vote will have a far more significant effect on the direction the country takes.
But on Thursday the residents of Rutherglen and Hamilton West will have their say in a by-election that could significantly shape the political narrative in Scotland.
Who is standing in the by-election?
The confirmed list of candidates standing in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election on 5 October are (in alphabetical order):
Gloria Adebo (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party)
Garry Cooke
Andrew Daly (Independent)
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Greens)
Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party)
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK)
Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservatives)
Katy Loudon (SNP)
Chris Sermanni (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition)
Michael Shanks (Scottish Labour)
David Stark (Reform UK)
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party)