Can Welsh GCSE results catch up England?

Wales has narrowed the gap with England for 'benchmark' GCSE results

We've already been told by the Welsh government that comparing Wales and England will be difficult for GCSE results this year.

The reason, they say is that pupils in Wales sit exams in November or January, as well as in the summer. But we will only get the results of the summer exams on Thursday.

We will have to wait until November for all the results, which were quite a bit higher than the summer-only results last year.

For example, last year the November results for maths were 11% higher for A*to C grades than the summer cohort.

But in England, more pupils sit the exams in the summer and, as the Welsh government says "In England, where there was much lower early entry, there was far less of a change between summer outcomes and the academic year outcomes published in January.

"It is a strong possibility that this scenario will occur again this year, with the inevitable impact on the ability to make comparisons between the sets of results."

The reason for the difference is that in England pupils only have one go at sitting an exam.

It was an attempt to stop schools encouraging pupils to take GCSEs early so they can "bank" good grades - simply entering them for retakes if they fail.

Although Welsh Education Minister Huw Lewis has said schools here should not "game the system" he has ruled out following England's lead and banning re-sits.

So on Thursday, we will just get the results from the summer exams.

This shows the relative performance for the last five years

Back in July in a debate about education standards in Wales, Mr Lewis also reiterated an assertion I first highlighted back in November last year, which is this:

"In 2011, the level 2 inclusive gap with England stood at 8.9 percentage points and was truly a subject for concern.

"By last year, that gap had fallen and closed to 1.4 percentage points. Now, I wonder whether, this summer, we'll see that gap close to nothing, or even, and it's quite conceivable, that Wales overtakes England in terms of attainment at GCSE."

To people who are not education policy wonks, "the level 2 inclusive" means the number of 15-year-olds getting five GCSEs A* to C, including English or Welsh and maths.

So what Mr Lewis was saying last month was that pupils in Wales might overtake England in this very important benchmark.

So why does he say that?

Well, the gap between Wales and England has been narrowing steadily year-on-year. But last year, while results in Wales jumped, in England they dropped quite a bit.

So the gap was just 1.4%.

However, it has since been suggested the results in England were a bit of a one-off due to "methodology and examination changes" and that, in fact, England is still a fair bit ahead of Wales on GCSE results.

We will all find out on Thursday.