What Severn bridge toll end could mean for jobs and homes

The tolls on the Severn bridges have officially been scrapped - but what does it mean for the surrounding region's economy?

Businesses have welcomed the move as lifting a barrier to trade as well as reducing costs for commuters, but there are signs local people in Welsh Severnside are facing increased competition for homes.

Estate agents said they had witnessed an influx of home buyers from the Bristol area looking "to get more property for their money".

Average house prices have risen faster in the two Welsh Severnside towns of Chepstow and Caldicot - 16% and 12% respectively - than in any other UK town since it the July 2017 announcement that the tolls would be cut.

'Gentrification'

Bristol is the second most-expensive area to buy a property in the UK after London, and only house prices in Manchester are rising more quickly than in Bristol, according to property experts Zoopla.

About 6,000 new properties are also planned or being built within 10 miles of the bridges on the Welsh side.

"Over the last couple of years and in particular in the last 18 months, the three-bedroom market and four-bedroom has had a huge increase in prices," said Caldicot estate agent Nathan Reeks.

"We've gone from, about £140,000 and we're now pushing to a quarter of a million pounds."

And locals are concerned south Monmouthshire could become "gentrified" and make buying a house "extremely difficult" for those who have grown up in the area.

"Local people need support otherwise we're in danger of becoming gentrified"

There are fears local roads and services like doctors and schools will not be able to cope with the "extra pressure" on infrastructure.

"There's about 1,000 or so extra properties planned for the Chepstow area alone but that will stretch our doctors' surgeries, schools and other essential basic provision," said Monmouthshire councillor Armand Watts, whose ward includes the original Severn Bridge.

"The roads around here are packed at rush hour as it is, add another 1,000 cars and we'll be gridlocked. Driving to Bristol will be the preferred choice as the train there from Chepstow is not direct so that's not going to be an attractive option.

"And with house prices rising rapidly, it's becoming almost impossible for those to get on the property ladder in the place they call home. Local people need support otherwise we're in danger of becoming gentrified."

Analysis

Sarah Dickins, BBC Wales economic correspondent

"That toll plaza queue can give the impression Wales is a less attractive place to do business"

It is estimated that toll removal could see traffic rise by six million more vehicles a year.

But the ending of tolls on the Severn crossings lifts not just a physical and financial barrier but also a psychological one.

For those that have had to queue at the toll plaza, the frustration they feel at delays and charges can form a barrier than can give the impression that Wales is a less attractive place to do business - or to live or play.

Those queues to enter Wales have at times been lengthy and that's not been a good advert for Wales for would-be tourists nor for potential investors.

What toll removal does is make Wales and the south-west of England feel closer psychologically. Easier to commute, easier to shop, easier to trade. House buying patterns are already changing and commuting will follow.

The big question is whether both sides of the bridges can be winners. The challenge for Wales is to make the most of being more easily connected to Bristol, the fastest-growing city outside London.

• 'Western powerhouse' aim for Cardiff, Bristol and Newport

• 'Challenges' after Severn bridges tolls cut

• Severn Bridge: Is it part of England or Wales?

But there is optimism the toll removal will benefit commuters and local workers as it "opens up enormous employment potential" in warehouses and offices on either sides of the Severn Estuary.

"The bridge toll going is massive," said recruitment consultant Stuart Martin, whose Caldicot firm Castlegate has 5,000 clients.

"I've had a 40% rise of people from Bristol coming to me looking for work in south Wales. That financial roadblock to an open Severnside marketplace has gone.

"For those lowest paid workers having to cross the bridge every day, it's a 10% pay rise at a stroke. In these times of austerity, that cannot be underestimated."