Covid: 6,000 Wales deaths in 'worst-case scenario'

As many as a fifth of the Welsh population could have been infected with coronavirus by March, it is estimated

There could be as many as 6,000 Covid-19 deaths in Wales by March with a peak of infections at Christmas, according to new research.

The latest model produced for the Welsh Government is a "reasonable worst-case scenario", which researchers stress is "deliberately pessimistic".

There would be as many as 636,000 cases - about a fifth of the Welsh population - between July 2020 and March 2021.

Over the same period the model assumes 6,300 deaths.

The research from Swansea University estimated weekly hospital admissions would peak at just under 2,000 around Christmas Day.

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"It is important to reinforce that this is a deliberately pessimistic scenario in terms of challenging public services; it is not what we think will happen," a paper produced for the Technical Advisory Group says.

"Public services, employers, communities and the public in Wales are continuing to work together to prevent spread of the virus and prevent hospital admissions and deaths while recognising that Covid-19 control measures can also cause harm."

There are plans for more ICU beds than the estimates suggest will be needed

The paper says the rise in cases could be mitigated by extra testing and caution amongst the public.

But it also highlights the problems likely to be caused by people feeling uncertain over the winter whether they have flu or other illnesses which could be confused with Covid-19.

A health committee meeting earlier this week heard more details of the report, including plans for 5,000 extra hospital beds and 350 in intensive care units (ICU).

Fliss Bennee, co-chair of Technical Advisory Cell (TAC), said the model indicates 190 cases in ICU during a potential end-of-December peak - which would mean capacity to treat other cases not related to Covid-19 at the same time.

In May, the TAC advisory group published modelling for the summer based on scenarios, which included the R number being 1 or 1.1

For R1.1, there was a potential for 36,200 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths.