Welsh economy in decline before Covid hit

Only 51% of the pre-Covid footfall has returned to Cardiff

The Welsh economy was in decline even before the pandemic hit, according to new official figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) - the value of goods made and services delivered in Wales - fell by 2.4% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics said.

That followed a decline of 1.1% between October and December 2019.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and every region of England also saw falls to their GDP.

General Secretary of union Wales TUC Shavanah Taj said: "This data is a good reminder that Covid isn't the only challenge facing our economy.

"The ongoing Brexit negotiations have made many employers reluctant to invest, and the growth in precarious work was already the reality for one in 10 workers before the pandemic.

"The challenges facing manufacturing are particularly alarming... this is why we have consistently pushed government to do all it can to retain jobs as we work our way out of this crisis."

Wales, along with the rest of the UK, went into lockdown in late March as the coronavirus pandemic took hold.

Schools, workplaces, shops, gyms and hair and beauty salons closed while sport and leisure activities ceased.

Public transport use dropped off dramatically as people were asked to stay home and work from there, or placed on furlough if their workplaces had shut.

Education has been the sector hardest hit by a fall in business

Looking at different industries in Wales , the ONS says education experienced the steepest fall in business.

It contracted by 18% between January and March, followed by transport with a fall of just more than 10% and arts and entertainment falling just less than 10%.

The average decline across the UK between January and March was 2.5%, slightly steeper than in Wales.

The economies of England and Scotland also declined by 2.5% while in Northern Ireland the economy contracted by 4.5%.

Every region of England also saw business decline.

The battle against the impact of the pandemic in both health and economic terms has perhaps led us to forget the fragility of the Welsh and UK economies as 2020 began.

Looking at the UK as a whole, 2019 had seen the economy contract between March and June 2019 , it picked up little over the summer and then went flat again.

In fact the GDP figures for October to December 2019 showed a fall of 1.12% with economists blaming the uncertainty around Brexit and what it might mean in practise along with a slowdown globally.

From a Welsh perspective such decrease in economic activity is worrying since the Welsh economy tends to linger at the bottom of the table of nations and regions of the UK in terms of GDP, the value of the goods made and services delivered.

In December, Wales was no longer at the bottom , the north east of England was , but Wales performed only slightly better.

These new figures for the first three months of the year show how much the Welsh economy, and the UK as a whole , was weakened as Covid restrictions began to impact the economy.

We can easily imagine the effect of closed cafes and pubs but the majority of sectors were hit.

The 17.8% fall in the value of the education sector between January and March is a reflection of the large number of hours of teaching that were cancelled because of Covid, either with individual teachers not being able to work or schools closing entirely because of lockdown.

A reminder of how the world of work was before the lockdown in March is useful .

It explains why some businesses and some sectors are finding it hard to operate now with fewer customers .