Covid no longer leading cause of death in Wales

Rhondda Cynon Taf has six communities in the highest 20 mortality rates in Wales across the whole of the pandemic

After four successive months, Covid-19 is no longer the leading cause of death in Wales, analysis shows.

Deaths due to Covid also fell significantly in March for a second consecutive month, the Office for National Statistics said.

Heart disease and dementia/Alzheimer's disease have now overtaken Covid as the biggest causes of death.

Two thirds of communities across Wales experienced no deaths due to Covid at all in March.

Covid accounted for 6.3% of all registered deaths over the month - it was 22.2% in February and 35.2% in January.

The mortality rate due to Covid-19 in Wales has fallen to 65.2 deaths per 100,000 in March - its lowest rate since September.

The "significant decrease" in the mortality rate is for both men and women, although male mortality (64.3 deaths per 100,000) was higher than that for women (62.6).

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Covid had been ranked as the leading cause of death for four successive months.

But heart disease is now the leading cause of death in Wales (121.2 deaths per 100,000 people). Lung cancer is the fourth; flu and pneumonia is the seventh leading cause, considerably below the five-year average.

Overall, since the pandemic began, the mortality rate due to Covid totals 186.3 deaths per 100,000 in Wales.

This is highest in Rhondda Cynon Taf - 319 deaths per 100,000, closely followed by Merthyr Tydfil (312.2). Gwynedd has the lowest mortality rate on 67.4.

For March, the mortality rate was highest on Anglesey, 174.9 deaths per 100,000.

Where are the most deaths?

The ONS has also broken down the deaths of those with Covid-19 into local areas - called middle layer super output areas, usually with average populations of around 7,000 people.

We can see in the 13 months since the pandemic began, Rhondda Cynon Taf has six communities in the highest 20 in Wales.

This shows 57 deaths in Tonyrefail due to Covid being the worst, followed by Sandfields in Port Talbot (52) and Porth East in RCT (48 deaths).

Only Porth East of these has shown a rise since last month.

When translated into mortality rates, based on population size, Llanelli Bigyn is the highest. followed by Port Talbot East.

When we just look at March, the highest numbers were in Holyhead on Anglesey and Penarth in the Vale of Glamorgan (four deaths).

There were also three deaths in nine other communities - Llanfair PG and Llangefni on Anglesey, Caernarfon East in Gwynedd; Llanfairfechan & Penmaenmawr, Conwy; Adamsdown, Cardiff; Buckley North and Northop and Sychdyn, Flintshire; Newtown South and Ystradgylais in Powys and Narberth in Pembrokeshire.

But two thirds of communities had no deaths from Covid at all in March.

And there is one community remaining which has had no Covid deaths at all through the pandemic - Llandudno Junction South & Llasanffraid Glan Conwy.

Are deaths really 'due to' Covid-19?

The ONS analysis finds that Covid-19 was the underlying cause of death in 71.3% of cases in March, where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.

A doctor's duties include certifying deaths, and this can include any cause in a chain of events leading up to them, including pre-existing conditions and whatever medically makes a contribution.

It was the underlying cause of death in 189 deaths in March - 6.3% of all deaths.

Taking into account all deaths involving Covid increases the proportion to 8.9% of all deaths - 265 - in Wales, when Covid is mentioned as being involved in the death.

How does Wales compare with the rest of the UK?

On age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR), over the 13 months of the pandemic, the mortality rate has been higher in England than in Wales, both for deaths involving Covid - and deaths due to Covid.

But if you take a crude mortality rate instead - not accounting for population and age profiles - and based purely on death numbers and population figures, then Wales is higher than in England.

The ONS uses the ASMR in its analysis.

For deaths due to Covid - the mortality rate is 186.3 deaths per 100,000 in Wales over the 13 months, and 193.9 in England.

When Covid is mentioned on the death certificate, it is a rate of 212.4 in Wales and 217.1 per 100,000 in England.